Predictably Irrational
How do we think about money?What caused bankers to lose sight of the economy?What caused individuals to take on mortgages that were not within their means?What irrational forces guided our decisions?And how can we recover from an economic crisis? In this revised and expanded edition of the New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller Predictably Irrational, Duke University's behavioral economist Dan Ariely explores the hidden forces that shape our decisions, including some of the causes responsible for the current economic crisis. Bringing a much-needed dose of sophisticated psychological study to the realm of public policy, Ariely offers his own insights into the irrationalities of everyday life, the decisions that led us to the financial meltdown of 2008, and the general ways we get ourselves into trouble.Blending common experiences and clever experiments with groundbreaking analysis, Ariely demonstrates how expectations, emotions, social norms, and other invisible, seemingly illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities. As he explains, our reliance on standard economic theory to design personal, national, and global policies may, in fact, be dangerous. The mistakes that we make as individuals and institutions are not random, and they can aggregate in the market—with devastating results.
Stats for nerds
83recommend
199mentions
162people
2008–2026years
50% recommend47% neutral3% critical
Mentions per year
What Hacker News says
- Ariely's book "Predictably irrational" was an absolutely delightful, short, pop-science read. It so clearly and usefully condensed science into tidbits you could sprinkle into intellectual conversation or incorporate into your lifestyle. Turns out the science behind it might just be trash, but since I repeated the BS in the same unwarranted confidence, people never questioned me.
- Wow to say the least. I have Predictably Irrational on my shelf and have highly recommend it in the past. Sad to see the whole field failing the irreproducibility task...
I'm very happy to see this type of scrutiny come to headline research but I really wish it begins at the beginning, with funding agencies and journals. And at the very least the moment a university sends out a breathless PR, the media all scrutinize the data provenance... A boy can wish
- I have found (academic) analytic philosophy to be a great way to slow down and think clearly. So I propose exposing yourself to well-thought-out arguments to see the kinds of "moves" people make.
A good place to start may be with the book by Daniel Dennett: Intuition Pumps And Other Tools for Thinking https://www.amazon.com/Intuition-Pumps-Other-Tools-Thinking-...
Similarly, it's great to read good science books with careful arguments. One of the best I think is Culture of Honor: The Psychology of Violence in the South https://www.amazon.com/Culture-Honor-Psychology-Violence-Dir... -- the authors use a variety of independent experiments to make their conclusions.
In general, it's probably worth learning a bunch of psychology too - to understand others better (along with the variety of cognitive biases people have). A classic book in this direction is Dan Ariely's Predictably Irrational https://www.amazon.com/Predictably-Irrational-Revised-Expand...
- There was an interesting observation that practitioners optimize for themselves, not the patients[1]. When you're seeing dozens of patients a day, each of them reacting differently, it's hard to empathize fully with, and adapt to, each of them. The one you can optimize for, as the practitioner, is yourself.
[1] Dan Ariely, in the intro of his must-read book "Predictably Irrational"
- Interesting. I read his book Predictably Irrational and quite liked it (of course that doesn't imply he's a good scientist). Are there any other scandals he is involved in?
- I read Ariely's "Predictably Irrational" years and years ago, and was fascinated by it. I'd been an economics graduate, and was surprised that we were only introduced to "Behavioural Economics" as a field in the final semester of the course.
To be sure, if you want to read far more academic material, you should look at Kahneman, Sunstein or Thaler's books - but Ariely's writing style is in my opinion more fun and approachable to the lay person. It was definitely my gateway drug into the subject matter.
Related
2008–2025
Predictably irrational by Dan Ariely
32 recommend · 39
The Upside of Irrationality
6 recommend · 15
Fooled by randomness
195 recommend · 403
The Intelligent Investor
152 recommend · 292
Thinking, fast and slow
373 recommend · 1,165
The Upside Of Irrationality The Unexpected Benefits Of Defying Logic
2 recommend · 2
