Cambridge University
2 HN recommenders · recommended in 3 months, 2013–2022
6:01 · 128K views · Dec 10, 2009
David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, uses statistics to weigh everyday risks such as bacon sandwiches and cycling. The six-minute piece introduces micromorts as a way to compare the risk of dying.
Recommended as a short, fun introduction to micromorts and thinking about risk.
3 comments from Hacker News
Here is great video by Cambridge Ideas about the risk of dying from various activities (measured in micromorts): this video The professor's conclusion is that one of the biggest risks is being too cautious.
There's a fun video he created with Cambridge University a few years ago, called "Professor Risk". Worth a watch (6 minutes) this video Takeaway from the video "I've come to the conclusion that one of the biggest risks is being too cautious."
The advantage of using micromorts is that they're units that can be added and directly compared. As a populace, we tend to be rather bad at doing fractions and percents - things like mpg - going from 34 to 50 mpg is less of a savings than having a vehicle go from 18 to 28 mpg for the same distance traveled. Consider the problem: you must either do X (1/200 chance of death) or YZ (Y has 1/300 chance of death, Z has 1/300 chance of death). Reworded this becomes: you must either do X (5 micromorts) or YZ (Y is 3.3 micromorts, Z is 3.3 micromorts). And now you've got things that are easier to compare and work with in a scale that we can think about. Most people are doing things on the scale of 0 to 20 micromorts. The more adventurous are doing things that get up to 100 or so. The thrill seekers go up from there. This is also a concept in insurance - [LINK] Cambridge University - Professor Risk this video A previous discussion on it from 2013 [LINK]