3Blue1Brown
10 HN recommenders · recommended in 3 months, 2020
8:57 · 6.1M views · Mar 8, 2020
A short 3Blue1Brown primer on exponential and logistic growth, using early COVID-19 case data to show how epidemics grow and eventually level off. It explains why small changes in growth rate make enormous differences in outcomes.
During the early COVID-19 period, HN commenters linked it as the clearest quick explanation of what exponential growth means for an epidemic.
20 comments from Hacker News
I live in Bergen County. There is a lack of panic - although I'm on the north side, opposite of the most infected parts. I went grocery shopping earlier today, there were a few people with masks but no one was really trying to keep a distance from others. Plenty of people there, perhaps a few less than usual. At times there are so many people that they have to restrict entry into the store and create a line outside (possibly to help with social distancing, but there are still too many people in the store for that to matter). It's the opposite of social distancing. The disaster in NYC, and the counties immediately north/east of Bergen (Westchester, Rockland) is going to spill over. We're not going to be able to handle it and we don't have the clout of NY to push for more resources. In a recent video, 3Blue1Brown wrote "The only thing to fear is a lack of fear itself." This is what worries me. My parents are at risk as long-time smokers and if Valley runs out of ventilators and PPE, our major/usual option is out. (excellent video by the way) this video
Just watched the 3brown1blue video today, which talks about exponential growth and fixes it to the latest actual COVID-19 numbers. Really helped it all click. this video Edit: separate HN discussion: [LINK]
And those who don't understand, or need a refresher on, exponential growth should watch this great video by 3Blue1Brown. Exponential growth and epidemics: this video
To be exact, it's a "logistic curve", which initially is exponential. From this 3Blue1Brown excellent video: this video
3 blue one brown had a great video on exponential growth that detailed how a 10% difference in the numbers is the difference between being halfway there and having orders of magnitude to go. As I'm sure you're aware, the point of the numbers isn't to change the reality of the situation, it's to understand what that reality is. And the people that care are epidemiologists and leaders with decades of experience fighting pandemic after pandemic. You know, people that know what they're talking about? Might be worth trying to spend time actually learning how the people that are spending day and night trying to save your life and the lives of your loved ones do their work before dismissing them as useless. this video