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6 HN recommenders · recommended in 9 months, 2016–2023
1:14:46 · 201K views · Oct 27, 2013
Physicist Al Bartlett's well-known lecture on the arithmetic of exponential growth, applied to population, energy consumption and resource depletion. He argues that steady percentage growth cannot be sustained on a finite planet and that most public discussion ignores this.
HN commenters cite it as a mind-changing introduction to exponential growth, though some note his peak oil predictions did not pan out.
11 comments from Hacker News
For me, several books by Greg Egan fall into this category. Permutation City, Diaspora, Quarantine, and Schild's Ladder have all... changed me. I was a different person before and after I had read those books, and now I categorise all works of fiction into those that forever alter my way of thinking and those that do not. [LINK] Which reminds me, I should finish: [LINK] The Culture series by Iain Banks, especially Inversions also satisfy this requirement, as does The City at the End of Time by Greg Bear: [LINK] -- which is a difficult to consume masterpiece that nonetheless left me permanently horrified in the way that H. P. Lovecraft tried but failed. For the non-fiction category the CGP Grey video "The Rules for Rulers": [LINK] and Part 2: [LINK] have totally changed the way I look at all political discourse, and this is coming from someone who has already absorbed The Prince. It's based on the Dictator's Handbook, which I should read also, but the CGP video was an effective summary already! [LINK] Last, but not least, if I'm allowed to include lecture videos, then the "Arithmetic, Population and Energy" lecture by Al Bartlett is absolutely amazing. You will never see the news in the same way again after watching it: this video
Compounding, growth etc this video Taught me the logical impossibility of the stock market to go up by x% per year, forever. Taught me that getting better today (however small) can give resources to getting better(er?) tomorrow. Taught me that many "experts" just say whatever to get voted in or to get a budget without regards to the absurdity of their own statements, and that many people eat up this kind of absurdity without fact checking / validating it.
"Two minutes past twelve." The problem with stuff like this is that most people have no knowledge about the dangers of exponential growth. It only takes an hour, but it's the most valuable use of an hour of your lifetime to watch Prof. Bartlett's talk on exponential growth in 'Arithmetic, Population and Energy': this video
Great read! Reminds me of this lecture: this video Al Bartlett - Arithmetic, Population and Energy Amazing how again & again, even so-called 'experts' can't do math, or ignore fundamental physics constraints. Never mind news outlets or the general public. And... most people don't understand exponential growth. Which brings me to b) math + physics is much much much much more reliable than people. So if you understand the physics involved, do the math, conclude that it can't possibly work, but someone (expert or otherwise) says it will work: go with your calculator. :-)
The population pyramid is not sustainable. The exponential function just will not allow for the combination of age pyramid and our increasingly effective health care keeping us alive to all become parents. Watch this talk: this video Tl;DW: we can not prevent the end of exponential population growth. We can only choose how it ends. By starvation, war, disease, or fewer births. Pension systems have relied on growth for a long time, but it's just not mathematically possible is the long run.