TED
2 HN recommenders · recommended in 4 months, 2020–2021
8:37 · 39M views · Apr 3, 2015
Bill Gates's 2015 TED talk, given after the 2014 Ebola outbreak, argues the world is unprepared for the next fast-spreading epidemic. He calls for scenario planning, vaccine research, and trained health workers, in the way countries prepare for war.
During COVID-19 HN commenters cited it as a prescient pandemic warning.
8 comments from Hacker News
Gates gave a prescient TED talk in 2015 [1] in which he describes the risk of a global pandemic and the general lack of preparedness. The Gates foundation has also been working for years to help eradicate diseases like polio and malaria [2][3]. Given his expertise in this area, it would seem worthwhile to listen to what he has to say rather than dismissing him as just a "billionaire industrialist." [1]: this video [2]: [LINK] [3]: [LINK]
We are not prepared, but there was people warning about it. See this Ted talk from Bill Gates, 5 years ago. It's impressive how the details are similar to coronavirus. this video
We’ve known that pandemics were going to get more likely as international travel got faster and cheaper, and population density rose and absolute population numbers rose. These factors have been part of the horror stories that epidemiologists tell each other late at night when the lights are out: “so it was a normal year, and airlines reduced the cost of India to USA flights by 20%,” horrified gasps (the audience knows where this story is going) Pandemic might have seemed improbable to you as a layperson, but the medical community has been bracing for this for decades. The less seriously you take it, the less seriously your politicians take it and the less seriously pandemic preparation gets funded. this video
"Global Catastrophic Risk Survey", 2008 [pdf] [LINK] Includes discussion of a "biggest natural pandemic". Posted to HN, if not discussed, on Oct 2, 2016. [LINK] The question of GCR has been raised numerous other times on HN, though admittedly more recently of late: [LINK] Infectious disease features prominantly among discussions of GCR: [LINK] Even software executives have suggested concern, this example from 5 years ago: this video As has the US military, from 2017: [LINK] Economic impacts of pandemic have seen significant scholarly treatment, here looking at 1990-2018: [LINK] Less black swan than head-buried ostrich, it might appear.
The failure goes well beyond just the federal government too. One example being NYC leaders and even health officials encouraging New Yorkers go participate in parades and other large gatherings through Feb and even into March, with messages of defiance against Coronavirus concerns: [LINK] Edit: Removed ventilator comment as that specific claim seems to be misleading, and it's not something particular to NY. Many governments weren't prepared for a surge. The U.S. as a whole had plenty of advanced warning about ventilator[1] and pandemic preparedness[2]. 1. [LINK] 2. this video