Rational choice in an uncertain world

What Hacker News says

1. nbernardJun 2024
   I found Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, by Hastie & Dawes, useful.
   thread
2. haakonhrJan 2024
   I really enjoyed The Fat Tail by Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat, which is about political risk and how to mitigate or manage it. Think revolutions, regulatory changes, elections etc. and how they affect markets. Another gem I found was the book Rational Choice in an Uncertain World by Robyn M. Dawes. It is a bit dated (the first version that I read is from 1988), but covers a lot of early research by people like Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. As someone born after the book was published a lot of the examples and scenarios used to illustrate rational choice were also new to me, e.g., the Cuban missile crisis, Affirmative Action. However, there is also a second edition from 2009 so it might be a better option.
   Show morethread
3. nbernardMar 2022
   I found "Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making" by Reid Hastie and Robyn M. Dawes very good on this topic. I read the first edition, but I believe there is a 2nd one now.
   thread
4. BostonianSep 2021
   Your question is rather general. The famous book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" discusses common mental errors. Also good is "Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making".

   I'd say that if there are several pieces of evidence in favor of some theory and several against, it is hard for people to weigh the entirety of the evidence. Instead they will often pick one salient fact and ignore the rest.

   Show morethread
5. billswiftDec 2010
   I second the idea that learning real math will help, but there is a purpose to using "logic puzzles" also - math doesn't help much with learning to recognize various "difficulties" - cognitive biases, like framing issues, and common fallacies, like ad hominems. Besides practicing logic puzzles, you need a good overview book, Robyn Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, is the single best volume I have found.
   thread
6. NitionOct 2025
   > The first response is always the best and I try to one shot it every time. If I don't get what I want, I adjust the prompt and try again.

   I've really noticed this too and ended up taking your same strategy, especially with programming questions.

   For example if I ask for some code and the LLM initially makes an incorrect assumption, I notice the result tends to be better if I go back and provide that info in my initial question, vs. clarifying in a follow-up and asking for the change. The latter tends to still contain some code/ideas from the first response that aren't necessarily needed.

   Humans do the same thing. We get stuck on ideas we've already had.[1]

   ---

   [1] e.g. Rational Choice in an Uncertain World (1988) explains: "Norman R. F. Maier noted that when a group faces a problem, the natural tendency of its members is to propose possible solutions as they begin to discuss the problem. Consequently, the group interaction focuses on the merits and problems of the proposed solutions, people become emotionally attached to the ones they have suggested, and superior solutions are not suggested. Maier enacted an edict to enhance group problem solving: 'Do not propose solutions until the problem has been discussed as thoroughly as possible without suggesting any.'"

   Show morethread