The strategy of conflict

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1. fidotronJul 2026
   So honestly Schelling was utterly brilliant. I cannot recommend all three of the books wikipedia classed as his notable works highly enough:

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Schelling#Notable_works

   There are footnotes in "The Strategy of Conflict" containing more profound insight than whole books that are published today.

   On this particular topic though "Strategy and Arms Control" is the one to go for.

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2. 7402Jul 2025
   Classic text that discusses some of this: The Strategy of Conflict by Thomas Schelling.

   He has, for example, an interesting discussion showing how having less information about one's opponent or less freedom of decision can actually put that party in a stronger position.

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3. michaeltNov 2023
   > Are there any youtube videos that go into the theory of proliferation and how an arms race works, or is there just not that much information available?

   I don't have a youtube video for you, but I do have a book recommendation: Thomas Schelling's "The Strategy of Conflict" from 1960.

   The writing is extremely clear and accessible, by the standards of nobel-prize-winning economists.

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4. wayfwdmachineMar 2023
   Yes. And it's fiction. We might as well discuss Excession, Agency, Diaspora (Banks, Gibson and Egan respectively) all of whom have more interesting and insightful things to say about humanity, game theory and ... seriously, as a life long (and I am OLD) science fiction fan, the fawning over The Remembrance of Earth's past is just silly. The concept of "suspicion". Might I suggest that people read Thomas Schelling's seminal work The Strategy of Conflict to begin with since if you want to understand concepts like brinksmanship and the push and pull of actual inter-civilization (or society or nation state) conflicts then you might want to start there and not with fiction riddled with silly concepts, weird misogyny and stuff that seems to be right out of the discarded parts of a Gregory Benford trilogy. I mean seriously.

   But ok. Let's dig into this

   "We can apply this concept of suspicion to the phenomenon in the field of modern artificial intelligence research. In AI research, some researchers believe that humans should pause the development of AI technology because of the potential unforeseeable risks it may bring."

   An analogy would be that some of the scientists involved with the Manhattan project (see Szilárd petition) attempted to file an official protest against the use of nuclear weapons against civilian population and arguing that the weapons constructed were too dangerous to be a part of an arms race and should be placed under an international control body.

   "However, another group of researchers believe that we should not stop because we cannot be certain whether those who are trying to catch up with us will use the advancement of AI technology as a hidden weapon."

   Researchers are not decision makers in this or any other scenario. AI technology as a weapon? Sure but unless you are Bombs Away LeMay circa 1961 this really isn't a winnable or even useful use case. We're still in a blue sky phase. The fun thing about nuclear weapons is that if any nation feels that another is pulling too far ahead they can be used as a way to push for bi/multilateral discussions and eventually treaties limiting the production and/or deployment of weapons that risk of increasing tensions/lethality and so on . (see SALT I/II and START etc)

   "This suspicion leads to a chain reaction, where people continue to worry about each other's motives and abilities, making it difficult for all parties to establish trust. Therefore, although there are good intentions, such proposals are unlikely to be implemented."

   Again... read Schelling... this is just nonsense.

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5. jvanderbotMar 2022
   If Ukraine housed all people, I'd say shoot down everything. It doesn't, and so (as the thinking goes) the world must simultaneously support the nascent democracy and also attempt to contain the violence. Otherwise, we really do risk escalation to WW3.

   There are treaties in place for retaliation, but no such treaty existed for Ukraine.

   A good book on these games is Strategy of Conflict.

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6. dash2Mar 2021
   Lots of specific comments below. My experience was that game theory changed the way I think about almost any aspect of life, by giving me a set of simple tools. It's not the only toolkit you should have, but it's very powerful. "This is a coordination game; this is signalling; that is a prisoner's dilemma..." turns out to be a very useful vocabulary for thinking about situations, from everyday life up to superpower conflict.

   For a great introduction from this point of view, check out Thomas Schelling's Strategy of Conflict. No maths, just a great read from a Nobel prize winner.

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