Risk Savvy How To Make Good Decisions
Posits that "most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials, misunderstand statistics much more often than we think, leaving us not only misinformed, but vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there is hope. Anyone can learn to make better decisions for their health, finances, family, and business without needing to consult an expert or a super computer, and Gigerenzer shows us how"
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What Hacker News says
- Actually, a lot of medical doctors and "professionals" do not really know how probabilities work. For more on this, refer to Gerd Gigerenzer's Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions. http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/risk-savvy-gerd-gigerenzer/1...
- The book with the theory mentioned in the article: 'Risk Savvy' How to Make Good Decisions: "In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information." http://www.amazon.com/Risk-Savvy-Make-Good-Decisions/dp/0670...
- "Flights are much safer due to the amount of research done in air-travel safety, in general, and also after every accident."
Yes, of course. But why? Why is the amount of safety research so much higher after a plane crashes compared to when a patient dies? Why are simple checklists common practice for pilotes but not for doctors even though they could save many lives [1].
As for car travel. It seems to be inherently more dangerous for the reasons you mention. But lets introduce a principal-agent problem [2] for car driving. Assume that for example taxi drivers would steer the vehicle from a save place say as a drone. Would you want to drive with such a taxi?
[1] Gigerenzer: Risk Savvy - How to make good decisions. [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal–agent_problem
