Thinking in bets
"Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions.
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55mentions
44people
2018–2025years
82% recommend16% neutral2% critical
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What Hacker News says
- Annie Duke has a great book "Thinking in Bets" where she talks about being a professional poker player.
One of the things she hammers on is that just knowing how much/often you win isn't the important part because you can win despite making dumb choices and lose despite making great choices.
The key thing is being able to make the best decision based on the limited information you have, take the consequences (good or bad), and then reset and do it again. This is relevant in poker, investment, or even our careers and a great ideal to reach for.
I included a small blurb on my 2021 reading list: https://caseysoftware.com/blog/my-reading-list-2021
- Yes. See 'Thinking in Bets' by Annie Duke for a good summary of why Poker is interesting / useful. World is Casino!
Blood on the Clocktower is great! My 15yo son is always trying to get a group of 8+ together for a game.
Came here to recommend Skull, a quick and easy to learn bluffing game, of which the designer said he was aiming for 'the feelings of poker without the money or luck' and I would say succeeded.
- The teachings from the games of gambling, probability etc is a valuable life skill that far too few people have.
I reccomend:
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts Hardcover – 6 Feb. 2018 by Annie Duke
Or listen to any of the podcasts she did when promoting the book - Peter Attia or Masters of Business are the two I presonally consumed at that time.
- I love looking at books in people's photos. Here's what I found in yours. I hope you don't mind!
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Bad Blood by John Carreyrou - A detailed account of the Theranos scandal.
The Founders by Jimmy Soni - Explores the early days of PayPal and its impact on Silicon Valley.
Shoe Dog by Phil Knight - Memoir by the founder of Nike.
Measure What Matters by John Doerr - A book about OKRs (Objectives and Key Results) and organizational success.
Business Adventures by John Brooks - Classic tales of corporate life, highly recommended by Bill Gates and Warren Buffett.
Becoming by Michelle Obama - The former First Lady's personal memoir.
The Last Lecture by Randy Pausch - Inspirational reflections on life and achieving dreams.
Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson - A comprehensive biography of Apple's co-founder.
Chaos Monkeys by Antonio García Martínez - A look into the wild side of Silicon Valley.
Facebook: The Inside Story by Steven Levy - A deep dive into the social media giant's history and controversies.
Skunk Works by Ben R. Rich - Stories of innovation from Lockheed Martin’s legendary division.
Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke - How to make decisions under uncertainty.
Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan M. Gardner - Insights into better prediction and decision-making.
Educated by Tara Westover - A memoir about resilience and education.
Kitchen Confidential by Anthony Bourdain - A raw look at the life of a chef.
Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin - A biography of the physicist behind the atomic bomb.
The Almanack of Naval Ravikant - Wisdom on wealth and happiness.
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I've read Naval's book, but not the others. Are there any in particular you really enjoyed?
- Thinking in Bets has been one of the most useful books to how I approach software engineering. It’s not even about code, just how to make decisions effectively in limited information environments.
- 1. This has many parallels with the concept of Resulting - our tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome, which was conceptualised in the book Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, which although a great work, I have to admit I did not finish.
2. Even though the element of chance is inherent to Bridge too, Duplicate Bridge is a clever attempt to nullify the role of luck in tournaments. The same hand is played in different tables (by different teams), and points are scored depending on how you fared in comparison to the other table. So, rather than playing to win, you play to do better than your counterpart in the other table. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duplicate_bridge
