Vinay Prasad, a physician and medical researcher, writes on COVID vaccines, masks, evidence standards, and politics.
Commenters argue over his posts on masks and myocarditis, with some citing his mask evidence claims and others disputing his advice on N95s.
> the data shows it is more likely to happen and be more severe from an infection with Covid-19 than from the vaccine.
No, not when stratified by age group. 2nd dose of moderna vaccine is 6x more likely to cause it for < 40 year olds [1]. If you stratify further (12-25) I suspect you'd find it's even worse. There's also a dose dependence where your chance of myocarditis increases with the number of doses [2], which not only corroborates [1] that the 2nd dose of Moderna is significantly higher risk, but that even 2nd dose of Pfizer puts is basically equal odds with the actual thing. And considering it's not either/or (i.e. the vaccines are not 100% effective at preventing your catching covid), this would mean that the vaccines are a net harm for younger age groups.
The dose dependence also seems to indicate some sort of cumulative effect (i.e. with enough infections or enough boosters, some vulnerable segment of the population will almost guaranteed to end up with myocarditis). Since we don't know how large this vulnerable segment is (perhaps somehow related to long-covid susceptibility), it's irresponsible to blindly recommend or mandate boosters for everyone.
> the vaccine simulates an infection with Covid-19, but gives your body the upper edge as the virus is not produced in it's full form and can't reproduce.
You could alternatively hypothesize that when acquired "naturally" the virus (and whatever proteins it ends up producing) don't immediately go into systemic…
I’m vaccinated but I won’t get a booster because:
- My heart hurt as hell from the vaccines. A study from the UK shows more risk for myocarditis from the vaccines than from infection in males under 40. [1]
- Studies say vaccines stop/slow transmission but in reality we see more cases in regions with high vaccination rates than we did last year without vaccines. And more cases than in regions with a lower vaccination rate. Breakthrough infections seem to be the norm, not the exception. I’m not the US.
- Natural immunity is superior. [2]
- Vaccines don’t protect against long covid. [3]
- The people at risk are old or have other problems. Statistically you will be fine when you’re under 60.
So when we add all these things up it’s clear to me we should have only vaccinated older people and the ones with health problem. Because the vaccines only work to protect yourself. And you don’t need artificial protection when you’re young and healthy. Just like the flu.
[1] https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/uk-now-reports-myocarditis-stratified
[2] https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital
[3] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03495-2
Edit:
I source my claims yet people downvote me. If you downvote me just because you heard something else in the media I consider you an irrational person.
Thanks for pointing me to that comment so I could upvote it. His comment is not accurate in that there are plenty of theories, but the general idea behind the claim is far more accurate than what probably many that frequent HN believe about long COVID. Long COVID is poorly understood and the research around it has overall been inconclusive, and much of it very low-quality:
https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/long-covid-kills-sadly-thats-still
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqAjrMNN-Vs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4NqsU-Dk9A
https://www.dailywire.com/news/taxpayer-funded-1-billion-long-covid-research-has-been-a-total-failure-waste-of-time-report
Even the linked article has a bunch of caveats like:
Joanna Hellmuth, a cognitive neurologist and clinical researcher at UC, San Francisco, who has collaborated with some of the authors but was not involved in the current study, questions the paper’s focus on the hippocampus. She notes there’s currently little evidence the typical cognitive symptoms of Long Covid are linked to memory encoding in this brain region. Although the results are interesting, in her view, “the model they’re testing doesn’t reflect the clinical condition.”
Vinay Prasad.
“Wearing an n95 to avoid the virus after vaccination is futile. You will eventually stop wearing it. And then you will eventually get hit with a subsequent epidemic wave. Or catch the virus between waves.” [1]
“So ‘I'm done with COVID’ is the honorable, equitable, altruistic, egalitarian, pro-science message that we need right now to combat the delusional thinking that ignored trade-offs for so long and would have us live in a bunker forever.” [2]
And seemingly, his warped definition of “Duty” [3] includes recommending children to be repeatedly exposed a virus that has deleterious, long-term effects effects on multiple organ systems, basing his arguments on comparing SARS-CoV-2 to a common cold virus (“Stop testing kids”). [4]
More of his egregious stuff is noted on a parody Twitter account. [5]
[1]: https://twitter.com/vprasadmdmph/status/1485312764297891843
[2]: https://twitter.com/vprasadmdmph/status/1485312770635538435
[3]: https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/stop-testing-kids
[3]: https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/duty
[4]: https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/stop-testing-kids
[5]: https://twitter.com/vpwndf
Better is to actually read what VP wrote (one could start 3 paragraphs before the 7 bullet points) :
https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/how-democracy-ends
The piece is a hypothetical about what happens when pluralism / democratic institutions decline and how opportunists/authoritarians could exploit this. The reference to Nazi Germany was not at all about current US public health restrictions or policy. If you actually read it, this becomes clear. (Given that Germany had essentially no pluralism or democratic traditions entering the 1920s I don't think the comparison is great but oh well.)
It is true that VP is an oncologist not an ID doc. But he is also a professor of epidemiology and biostats at UCSF, perhaps the top med school in the US. This means he is vastly more quantitatively savvy than most public health officials or commentators.
What this study does show is that with a booster shot you are offered significant immunity against COVID, including omicron.
The confidence interval is between 10%-60% for the booster, oddly selective of you to pick the highest number. The FDA standard is to have at least 50% VE, with lower bound CI >30% for EUA.
What this study does show is that immunity is trending down and will likely hit 0 within a few months once the antibody response wanes. So yes, omicron does spread easily which is the original point I was contesting.
In addition to this it is well known now that for men under 40 the risk of myocarditis from the vaccine outweighs the risk from the virus: https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/uk-now-reports-myocarditis-stratified
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0.pdf