Covid Data Science

There is not strong evidence supporting a 3rd booster dose in immunocompetent people. We have partly seen a misinterpretation of the Israeli data [1] and specifically the single low effectiveness value that appears to be the result of Simpson's Paradox [2]. Dr. Fauci reported this single value decline from the high nineties to the high seventies on Andy Slavitt's podcast [3]. Pfizer's CEO has promoted this same data, Israel's 3rd dose campaign is well under way, and Fauci's public statements are a strong indicator that the U.S. will follow the same path. British Columbia's Dr. Bonnie Henry indicated yesterday [4] that the Canadian numbers do not yet support a general 3rd dose booster but, like the UK, a longer 2nd dose interval due to a First Doses First (FDF) strategy may be a factor.

The 3rd dose is safe and will probably provide a small benefit to the recipient as Shane Crotty described in TWiV 802 [5]. The downside is that these doses are in short supply globally where they could make a significant difference.

[1] https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

[3] https://lemonadamedia.com/podcast/dr-fauci-answers-your-biggest-questions/

[4] (YouTube ~3.5min @36m45s)
https://youtu.be/93Rnjmr7iCk?t=36m45s

[5] https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-802/

Apparently not at the same rate. In the UK, ages 1-59 year olds are dying at almost twice the rate if vaccinated than not.

The forth chart from the top "ages 10-59"

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/what-do-uk-data-say-about-real-world-impact-of-vaccines-on-all-cause-deaths

This site is very pro vaccine, but even here they have to do a lot of hand waving to try and explain it away. And Suddenly everything is fuzzy, they can't quite put the two together. Which is almost funny considering these same people were touting the effectiveness of the vaccine on cherry picked statistical data with utmost certainty.

APPENDIX 1. LIST OF ADVERSE EVENTS OF SPECIAL INTEREST from the pfizers own study.

http://supremelaw.org/authors/pfizer/1290.adverse.events.htm

Here's another one, young person, story from today.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/ayr-centennials-hockey-player-dies-1.6568113

[Edit] Corrected the link
https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/what-do-uk-data-say-about-real-world-impact-of-vaccines-on-all-cause-deaths

This may be explained by Simpson's Paradox. Something similar happened in Israel, if you look at the raw case numbers for the current wave, it looks like the vaccine only has a ~67% efficiency:

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

The UK and Israel both have very high vaccination rates of older people, and lower fully vaccinated rates of younger people. Someone who is 75 most likely has a much weaker immune system than someone who is 25, to the point where someone who is 75 and fully vaccinated may have a much harder time fighting the virus than someone who is 25 and unvaccinated.

The data from Israel if broken down by under and over 50s, shows the vaccine efficiency is 92% for under 50s and 85% for over 50s. Israel mainly used Pfizer though, where as the UK mainly AstraZeneca, so there could also be differences there.

Vaccine efficacy on the Delta variant is still a debatable topic, and it's dangerous to make any conclusion from a single reference limited to a very specific, narrow subset of sample.

You probably remember Israel's report (which is strongly motivated to promote booster shots) indicated that vaccine's efficacy was pretty low, but it turns out to be a textbook case of Simpson's paradox[1] from extremely biased vaccination rate.

From what I saw from KDCA's daily reports (which performs extensive contact tracing with a pretty high coverage, not even remotely comparable to the US), it's more of 70% protection against Delta. Though it's possible that its efficacy is waning over time, which may explain the gap between Korea and Israel.

[1] https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

I think your analysis doesn't account for the fact that the majority of double vaccinated people are also at far higher risk of covid to begin with. There was an interesting article about this (Simpson's Paradox, as it's known in the world of data analysis) recently: https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated -- the overall trend is reversed when the data are grouped properly.

The preponderance of evidence shows that the covid vaccines are overwhelmingly effective and safe for the vast majority of people. Your alarmism and calling Government vaccination campaigns propaganda is contributing to the spread of an incurable but now preventable disease that is killing thousands of people daily and you should feel bad about that. You are a menace to society.

That number does not mean what people think it does and is being bandied around as a result of extreme statistics illiteracy:

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

Also, what is the world is going on in that preprint[0]? I can not follow their conclusions in Table 1 model 1.

Looking at Table 1 - Model 1, it looks like the 40+, early vaccinated cohort has only a 15%-30% chance of being infected as compared to the 40+, late vaccinated cohort.

The paper itself says they did some adjustments for co-morbidities, but has no description of what they did. So it looks like the paper's conclusion is directly the opposite of what's being shown in the Table 1 - Model 1.

[0]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261317v1.full.pdf