PolyMatter
2 HN recommenders · recommended in 3 months, 2021
21:08 · 3M views · Mar 2, 2021
PolyMatter's first part of a series on China's demographic collapse, covering the effects of the one-child policy, shrinking workforce and economic consequences.
Offered as a starter for people wanting to understand China's demographic crisis and how it threatens economic growth.
3 comments from Hacker News
I've recently been really digging in on China, and the more I read / learn, the less threatening (not evil, the CCP is certainly plenty evil) I perceive them. A starter on this is the three part polymatter series. 1) China has a monster of a demographics problem that they are clearly lying about with census data: this video [LINK] 2) It's pretty well established at this point that Chinese property markets have serious issues which threaten systemic issues: [LINK] [LINK] 3) Their resource situation, especially water issues are serious: [LINK] 4) They have terrible Geography from a military perspective and are not nearly as militarily strong as they project [LINK] 5) And the biggest one. Chinese citizens are increasingly not prosperous enough to be ok with it. Also the gender imbalance is so severe that there are guaranteed to be 10s of millions of angry single men over the next decades, almost certain to increase social discord. [LINK] [LINK] They have also seriously mishandled their relationship with Australia who they really needed which was just long term cemented with the AUUKUS alliance. Another interesting channel which I found because she was talking about evergrande default over three years ago: [LINK] Video on frequent structural disasters [LINK] I think over the next 30 years, the US tripping over it's own feet is a bigger risk than anything China related
Of relevance is this video[1] discussing a demographic crisis in China caused from their one-child policy that will lead to significant economic issues in the coming decades, much like how Japan is having issues. There's a good chance this will limit their growth. [1] this video
China has a lot of challenges coming up in the future that is slowing that growth now: this video It's making the CCP jittery, which is a theory behind the increasing authoritarianism in the country now.