Patrick Boyle
2 HN recommenders · recommended in 3 months, 2025–2026
26:45 · 653K views · Mar 22, 2025
Patrick Boyle examines why birth rates are falling in nearly every country and argues the standard explanations do not hold up. He presents data suggesting fewer couples forming is a major driver.
HN users cite it as a data-rich look at falling fertility that points to declining coupling rather than people choosing fewer kids.
3 comments from Hacker News
I watched this video a while ago that said something similar. this video The decline in birthrates isn't related to growing living standards, as poorer countries also have declining birthrates. Turkey has a lower birthrate than the UK, and Mexico has a lower birthrate than the US. Places like North Africa and South India have seen declines in birthrates comparable to the West. He makes the argument that declining birthrates are due more to a fall in coupling than a fall in people in relationships choosing to have kids. He brings up that birthrates would actually be increasing if marriage rates remained constant. This means that all the incentives countries push such as subsidized childcare or tax breaks to have kids are putting the cart before the horse, as a growing share of young people don't have a partner to have kids with to begin with. He then brings up that the fall in coupling a country experiences is roughly correlated to the rate of mobile internet usage in that country. 46% of American teens say they use social media "almost constantly" vs. 24% a decade ago. People would rather use social media than go out and meet others. He points to South Asia as an example, as it's experienced a relatively smaller decline in marriage rates, and mobile internet usage there is lower than in the rest of the world. I suppose it's yet another way that cell phones are impacting society.
Patrick Boyle eventually comes to a similar conclusion in his video about global population decline - this video - but includes lots of graphs and other interesting factlets. * warning for Americans: not suitable for those offended by sarcasm
Patrick Boyle has looked at causes of decline in the total fertility rate around the world and concluded reduction in the formation of couples (married or not) is a major cause. this video