Wendover Productions
2 HN recommenders · recommended in 4 months, 2021–2022
19:47 · 7.8M views · Jun 1, 2021
Wendover Productions explains the wave of supply shortages in 2021, arguing the causes go beyond COVID. It covers how just-in-time manufacturing was applied, container imbalances and the chip shortage.
HN commenters point to it as a better explanation of just-in-time versus the Toyota Way and of container and chip shortages.
4 comments from Hacker News
I’ve heard recently (in a video that I don’t know how to find again) that that’s exactly what happened with the automotive industry’s chip shortage: Toyota was the only one that built a stock of chips in advance, and now are the only ones that can keep producing cars without being limited by the shortage. Edit: found the video: this video At 13 min. 24 seconds: > Just in time is such a simple principle, but the pursuit of the elimination of waste is now the central mission of any major manufacturer. > However, most did it wrong. Manufacturers globally saw the headline “elimination of inventory leads to massive efficiency gains” and jumped on that without actually determining what made it work for Toyota. > They ignored that Japan's small physical size made for short domestic supply chains, less vulnerable to things going wrong. > They ignored the company's production leveling: finding the average daily demand and producing that regardless of short-term changes and demands. > They ignored the fact that eliminating excess inventory is different from eliminating all inventory. > They ignored the principle of growing strong teams of cross-functional workers predicated on respecting people. > They ignored the culture of stopping and fixing problems to get things right the first time. > They ignored huge swaths of the Toyota Way and created a system that’s less effective and less resilient but can impress shareholders through short-term savings. > How Toyota has effectively implemente
I don't think that's exactly true and actually may be a common misconception - see this video for a much better explanation than I could provide.
The demand became a lot more lopsided for several reasons: * consumers were shifting spending from experiences that would've been COVID impacted (holiday travel, entertainment venues, restaurants) to online shopping * industrial supply chains in Asia were the least impacted by COVID due to the relative lack of explosion in cases there compared to the rest of the world, so we are legitimately shipping more from there and exporting less * a good chunk of the medical equipment that has been necessitated by COVID (e.g. masks) is made in Asia and that has made demand even more lopsided * there was a ship backlog because COVID impacted how ships were getting unloaded, and at one point they weren't sending back ships with empty containers to reduce turnaround times, and now there are not enough containers in China and too many in the US. Wendover Productions video: this video
I wouldn't be so confident on pinning US COVID policy as the root of supply shortage issues consider supply shortages and soaring costs are currently worldwide problems; Other causes have been cited more commonly by economists & institutions. this video