Intercollegiate Studies Institute
1 HN recommender · recommended in 6 months, 2012
1:16:27 · 49K views · Mar 15, 2012
A 2012 debate between Peter Thiel and George Gilder on whether technological progress and economic growth are accelerating or decelerating, moderated by William Davidow.
Cited for Thiel's technological stagnation thesis, especially his argument that energy costs offset IT productivity gains.
8 comments from Hacker News
And if you have an extra hour, its well worth it to listen to Thiel in this more recent debate on the broader issue: Peter Thiel and George Gilder debate on "The Prospects for Technology and Economic Growth" this video
Right, corruption is a global pandemic. Who can say how much the bids are rigged in awarding US military-industrial contracts (funded both by US taxpayers and global dollar-demand), to say nothing of state and local gov contracts (eg NYC paying $632m for a 911 phone system upgrade[1]). And wall street fleecing everyone else, as usual.[2] The article makes some very insightful points, but I'm not convinced that Chinese SOEs are more evil than any other centers of power (just one manifestion of growing inequality). One casualty overlooked here are Chinese SMEs: "The real problem is the limited presence of other financial intermediaries and the rudimentary nature of bond and equity markets, both of which poorly serve the needs of small private companies and local governments."[3],[4] The author is right about deflation as the sandtrap up ahead, but that's just the consequence of a decelerating economy and we're still to see how soft/hard China lands. In doing a root cause analysis, one can chase down endless trails corruption. But if you want to find a problem which can be solved with a technological solution (as opposed to a social solution), it comes down to a distinct lack of progress in energy tech. Productivity gains in IT just haven't been enough to offset the rising cost of energy (as argued by Peter Thiel)[5]. Sure, the rising cost of energy is tempered a bit during deflationary cycles. But its a lose-lose, because so is economic growth (harmed both by too much inflation
There's a global Great Recession, and the arguments that its due to a mismatch between available jobs and worker skills are just smoke to rationalize the growing inequality. Peter Thiel argues that its due to the cost of energy.[1] A recent article about the price to import coal to India supports his argument.[2] The Superbubble has popped, and every sector is cutting back for private equity to make inroads. 1. The Prospects for Technology and Econimic Growth this video 2. Grinding Energy Shortage Takes Toll on India's Growth [LINK]
> The truth is, we may well be in the largest slowdown of technological growth in human history. Economist Tyler Cowen calls this the “great stagnation.” relevant relink: Peter Thiel and George Gilder debate the prospects for technology and economic growth[1]. The basis of Thiel's argument comes down to the price of energy. He's bearish. He notes that Warren Buffet's biggest bet, which is on trains that transport 40% by volume coal, is a bet that clean, cheap energy tech will fail. [1] this video
Note that although Simon won the bet, "if you re-round the same bet on a rolling basis.. [Ehrlich] has won by such a big margin in the last decade that it has more or less undone the price gains of the previous century." (quoting Peter Thiel in a debate with George Gilder: Accelerating or Decelerating? The Prospects for Technology and Economic Growth this video )