Stats for nerds
2recommend
3mentions
2people
2016–2023years
67% recommend33% neutral
Mentions per year
What Hacker News says
- In a previous time I would have sent you to some classics on bubbles and their popping like The Money Game and Supermoney written under the pseudonym Adam Smith and in that time (it seems like forever ago) when people were into crypto there was
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusion...
but once ChatGPT came out people forgot about NFTs, the "Metaverse" and such.
FAANG employees are hurting (because FAANG has FAANG problems) but it seems most normal employers are struggling to hire, it is not so clear we are in a recession yet.
Inflation is still here and the Fed is talking about raising interest rates and if they do it enough there will be a recession, or at least we think so. An obvious investment choice is
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/
for money you might want in the next few years, you have a juicy interest rate but it will go up if inflation goes up. I bought a lot of I bonds at the 2000 bubble peak and they did really well even though inflation was under control. Investing in the similar TIPS product as part of a hedge fund made Ray Dialio of Bridgewater a household name.
It is strange how the stock market has done well. People mostly quit trading crypto so the prices have not dropped despite the loss of interest. I am loathe to make any predictions about either.
I think VC firms are pulling back, particularly from money losing boondoggles like Uber. I do see a lot of people are in stealth mode and self-funded, some will bootstrap, others will have great pitches for funding.
The AI goldrush is real but don't be one the lazy people who gets ChatGPT to write their pitch deck. The same technology behind ChatGPT can be reconfigured for other purposes, this page
https://huggingface.co/docs/transformers/quicktour
lists 13 different uses of transformer models, really understanding what you can do with the tools from that site can change your life. Most importantly, Facebook and Google won't be able to fully take advantage of this technology for reasons mentioned in this post and elaborated in my comment
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35069965
basically they need to train a model that pleases everybody which is organizationally and politically intractable, but transformers put the power to train a model that pleases you in the palm of your hand.
- Markets are irrational and always have been, and the cool factor has been around since at least the 1920s. You sound like you could be an extremely capable investor; disillusionment is a really good starting point. The next step, if you're interested, is reading The Money Game by 'Adam Smith', which was written in the 1960s but reads like a description of the 2000s... I also recommend 1929: The Year of the Great Crash, although I forget the author at the moment.
- People have been talking about finance for a long time. See
https://www.amazon.com/Money-Game-Adam-Smith/dp/0394721039
from the 1960s. Certainly the stock market was a popular topic in the go-go years from 1995 to 2000 as well. I don't know if the environment has changed or if you have changed.
