How Countries Go Broke
The author of “Principles” evaluates the forces that contribute to what he calls the “big debt cycle.” Read by Jeremy Bobb and the author. 10 hours unabridged.
Stats for nerds
2recommend
8mentions
5people
2025–2026years
38% recommend50% neutral13% critical
Mentions per year
What Hacker News says
- You haven’t seen the bond market then. Look at what it’s doing. Ignorance is bliss until it isn’t. Interest rates will only keep going up for the foreseeable future, increasing the cost of all credit products, slowing the economy further along with rising oil prices.
> The combination of near-term energy-driven inflation and the long-term debt trajectory means that it will cost more to borrow money for the foreseeable future.
Not investing advice, but locking in long term debt at low interest rates would potentially be a good idea. I have, so US policy inflates it away over time.
“How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle” by Ray Dalio is a great book on this topic.
https://economicprinciples.org/downloads/How-Countries-Go-Br...
- If you want to understand what's going on, I suggest reading "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle" by Ray Dalio.
https://economicprinciples.org/
https://www.amazon.com/How-Countries-Go-Broke-Principles-ebo...
The oversimplified explanation is that there's a money cycle that lasts ~80-120 years. We're going through the rough part of the cycle right now; and trying to fight it just prolongs it.
- I can't recommend enough that you read "How Countries Go Broke" by Ray Dalio. There's even a free PDF: https://economicprinciples.org/downloads/How-Countries-Go-Br...
Dalio explains the currency cycle, which starts with hard currency, goes through some various stages until there's pure fiat, and then goes back to hard currency.
- Connecting the dots from the ideas of his book "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle" to today's macro and financial situation.
What's your take?
- It is one thing to say economy will slow down, of course it will, we have ran a bull market for very long time that slowdown as well as serious correction is a given. It is entirely different thing to quote “How Countries Go Broke”
If you bet against America, you will always lose in the long run. In the short run, if you can time it (which no one can, that is why I have see “Dalio” warnings in my Apple News “front page” for 1/2 a decade now) you may score some points in the short run. In the long run, you will always lose, period
- Ray Dalio explains this history in his books "How Countries Go Broke" and "Big Debt Crises".
His theory is that governments have a debt cycle, and printing money is just one point in that cycle.
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