
Bridgewater Associates founder, Ray Dalio, offers a five-step process to getting what you want out of life, which involves systemizing everything to run like a machine — which can then be fine-tuned.
This wave IS different.
It isn't a matter of "if" but "when".
I am a long-time software developer too... but I am strongly encouraging people to embrace the future now and get creative in finding ways to adapt.
There will always be demand for smart and creative people. BUT ... if you don't look up and look around you right now at some point you will be irrelevant.
Also see Ray Dalio's "Principles" book on embracing reality. A critical principle in the modern age of AI.
Nothing but love for my fellow developers!!
[1] http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html
https://economicprinciples.org/
https://www.amazon.com/How-Countries-Go-Broke-Principles-ebo...
The oversimplified explanation is that there's a money cycle that lasts ~80-120 years. We're going through the rough part of the cycle right now; and trying to fight it just prolongs it.
Ezra gave Rogoff a lot of push back and Rogoff came off as a guy who intuitively understands things but doesn't rigorously understand them so he looked kind of foolish multiple times. Rhetorically he was poor and if I hadn't already gone in agreeing with his general consensus, I would probably have been left fairly unconvinced. Of course, the curse of knowing a lot is that your knowledge of what you don't know is much larger than other people's knowledge so it's harder to confidently present things because you can think of exceptions or why they might not be true or how things could be much worse or much better than what seems most likely.
I think you are totally right, but particularly nationally.
Ray Dalio's Principles of a changing world order explains the macro forces around Boeing. He predicts we are headed for civil unrest as the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, and that we are definitely creating the conditions for world war particularly with China.
This is Principles in video form (45min): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8
I find the video prescient and directly relevant to so many HN posts. I have found no video that better explains the general state of America.