Japan As Number One

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1. gwernMar 2018
   Speaking of which, tonight I made a scan of _Japan as Number One: Lessons for America_, Vogel 1979: http://libgen.io/book/index.php?md5=10dd41d874075bdd04be0a46... https://www.dropbox.com/s/rr14mgyq8cnrp32/1979-vogel-japanas... https://mega.nz/#!peoiWAya!siIb9bDw6JbX9-toqTj6bP5iW4VlVTK4b...
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2. tokenadultMay 2014
   First I read all the comments already posted here. Then I read the fine article from beginning to end. This is a good article, and well worth a read. I am old enough to remember the kind of reporting that was done about Japan in the English-language press back when the book Japan as Number One[1] had just been published. Japan used to look unstoppable in the same way that China looks world-beating to many people now. But Japan's "lost decade" of minimal economic growth and declining soft power in the world has lasted a lot longer than just one decade.

   Japan in the 1980s already had significant advantages that China still lacks in the 2010s. First of all, it had a political system with actual elections that weren't wholly rigged. (The political system in Japan has opened up more since then, but even thirty years ago it was well ahead of where China's political system is now.) Second, Japan had a free press and unfettered access to foreign reporters and foreign news media for decades by the 1980s. China still doesn't have either of those information channels for correcting problems in sufficient degree. Third, although primary education in China is quite good in urban areas, good primary education in China is still not as pervasive nationwide as it was in Japan by the 1980s. That's illustrated in part by how few people in China (compared to Japan) are even conversant in the national language. Barely more than half the population is conversant in standard Mandarin Chinese.[2]

   China is at risk. The "socialism with Chinese characteristics" (中国特色社会主义) economic policy it officially now has cannot be sustained. It looks like it has been growing rapidly in recent years for some of the same reasons that Spain looked like it was growing rapidly a decade ago--a housing bubble. The inevitable correction that has to happen in the investment markets in China may not bring about a recession, but it can't help but bring about a change of investment priorities that may make China look less amazing for a while. China will really rise to world prominence when its common people enjoy free and fair elections, a free press, and good educational opportunity all over the country, something I hope they experience sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, I'm actually more optimistic about India during my lifetime.

   [1] http://www.amazon.com/Japan-Number-One-Lessons-America/dp/15...

   [2] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-23975037

   http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-03/07/content_5812838...

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3. tokenadultAug 2012
   The author of this piece, Minxin Pei, has been writing about national policy in China for a long time for a variety of publications. I get the sense, from what I remember of his earlier writings, that his own views on issues have been updated by observing the path that China's development has followed since the end of the Cultural Revolution (back when I began studying the Chinese language and Sinology). There are an increasing number of observers who think the current governance and policies of China are unsustainable. I too think much of the gee-whiz reporting about China's "inevitable rise" in the last few years is very reminiscent of overoptimistic predictions of "Japan as Number One" back in the 1980s. Most likely, the more entrenched democracy and ability to criticize the government openly that the United States has as compared to China will help the United States muddle through and continue to be the world's sole superpower. First-generation immigrants from China like Pei will help that process of the United States adjusting to new world realities of the twenty-first century.
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