A treatise on probability

What Hacker News says

1. chewzAug 2022
   > A good book on the topic is "Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk".

   I wouldn't recommend that book. I would rather recommend reading A Treatise on Probability by John Maynard Keynes... which is insightful and genius like most of his work.

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Treatise_on_Probability

   Some parts of Fooled by Randomness are also insightful (before Nassim Taleb became this weird, tin foil hat guy he is now)...

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness

   As for capitalist economy - it is of course a matter of opinion but I would rather say that capitalist economy is more about rent seeking, externalising costs and taking crazy amounts of risk with moral hazard rather then about risk management...

   But perhaps it is because I am risk manager by trade and had seen too many insurance, banks and money managers from the inside...

   EDIT: Both books - as I have just realized - are saying more or less that probability and risks are real but rarely quantifiable. I guess that makes me a pessimist.

   Show morethread
2. YipsterJul 2011
   You can download A Treatise on Probability by John Maynard Keynes from Guttenberg http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/32625

   Although I agree on the Laplace book mentioned already as well.

   thread
3. eruditelyFeb 2020
   By the way, it's alleged by a famous professor(?) and amazon reviewer Michael Emmet Brady that Ramsey in no way "demolished" his theory and that this particular problem has drawn people away from respecting and appreciating Keynes immense work in philosophy of probability

   here is the review: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2927587

   "An Examination of the Fundamental Reasons Why Frank Ramsey Failed in His Reviews of J M Keynes's a Treatise on Probability"

   Show morethread
4. kgwgkJun 2019
   There are established theories of probability that have nothing to do with ergodicity. See for example:

   Laplace - Théorie analytique des probabilités - 1812

   Keynes - A Treatise on Probability - 1921

   Jeffreys - Theory of Probability - 1939

   Savage - The Foundations of Statistics - 1954

   de Finetti - Teoria delle Probabilità - 1970

   Show morethread