How the World Really Works
new masterpiece from one of my favorite authors… [How The World Really Works] is a compelling and highly readable book that leaves readers with the fundamental grounding needed to help solve the world’s toughest challenges.”—Bill Gates “Provocative but perceptive... You can agree or disagree with Smil—accept or doubt his ‘just the facts’ posture—but you probably shouldn’t ignore him.”—The Washington Post An essential analysis of the modern science and technology that makes our twenty-first century lives possible—a scientist's investigation into what science really does, and does not, accomplish. We have never had so much information at our fingertips and yet most of us don’t know how the world really works. This book explains seven of the most fundamental realities governing our survival and prosperity. From energy and food production, through our material world and its globalization, to risks, our environment and its future, How the World Really Works offers a much-needed reality check—because before we can tackle problems effectively, we must understand the facts. In this ambitious and thought-provoking book we see, for example, that globalization isn’t inevitable—the foolishness of allowing 70 per cent of the world’s rubber gloves to be made in just one factory became glaringly obvious in 2020—and that our societies have been steadily increasing their dependence on fossil fuels, such that any promises of decarbonization by 2050 are a fairy tale.
Stats for nerds
16recommend
32mentions
26people
2022–2026years
63% recommend38% neutral
Mentions per year
What Hacker News says
- How the world really works - Vaclav Smil
- You are both right and wrong at the same time.
Long time ago when Siemens in Germany was still building nuclear power plants, I was working in the nuclear power plant engineering department. After the year 2022 when the Russia invaded Ukraine, the gas shortages and the following costs hikes renewed my interest energy sector. Why didn't German reverse it's anti-nuclear stance, even with war in Europe?
Was is the general lack of knowledge of physical, technological and economical aspects of energy, both in German population and decision makers?
The political aspect became clearer after reading "Akte Atomausstieg" by Daniel Gräber.
https://www.perlentaucher.de/buch/daniel-graeber/akte-atomau...
Little bit of money from oil and gas industry always helps.
https://correctiv.org/en/latest-stories/2022/10/07/gazprom-l...
https://www.politico.eu/article/robert-habeck-germany-qatar-...
I think solar and wind are interesting technologies, (solar almost magical - turning photons of light inside thin layer of doped silicon into electrons) but by itself insufficient to power modern world. They are intermittent, weather dependent and low density. Yes the sun and wind come free from Sun, the machines that convert the energy, store it and distribute it are not. Minerals have to be mined, machines build, transported, installed and then disposed off.
Recommended reading:
"Sustainable Energy – Without the Hot Air" by Sir David John Cameron MacKay
Books by Vaclav Smil:
Energy and Civilization: A History
Energy Transitions: Global and National Perspectives
How the World Really Works
"Why Nuclear Power Has Been A Flop" - The Gordian Knot of the 21st Century
There are still big hydrocarbon reserves, gas/oil for atleast 100 years, coal 200 years, at current consumption rates. I fear that, if we don't use the only carbon free high density energy source and cling our hopes to the mirage of renewables, we will transform our atmosphere to hell.
When even the oil and gas giants advertise for renewables, you know that renewables will never replace fossil fuels.
"gas the perfect partner for renewable energies"
https://totalenergies.com/news/news/natural-gas-integral-par...
- I'm too lazy to double check the numbers, but as far as I remember, Germany in order to increase it's average generation by 10% had to expand capacity by 70% in solar plus wind. With stats like this, there's a thin line between progress and waste. And all this while we have nuclear. (How the world really works, Vaclav smil if anybody is less lazy than me)
- I don't know, feels a bit too defeatist for me. According to the article: if you share, you feed the forest if you hide, the forest has already won *if you resist, the resistance is absorbed
This doesn't leave any room for contradiction. And I want to believe that as much as the tech-overlords believe that they control reality, reality is inherently messy and complex. Execution still matters, bureaucracy is real, big companies run in questionable directions all the time. AI companies also directly compete with each other and are not this monolithic being. In other words, the forest is not a single organism, it's a chaotic ecosystem.
I do agree with a lot of the points though because I think having this prediction machine on steroids is indeed an insane power to wield. I remember having those thoughts already about google ca. 20 years ago, them having access to every seach phrase. Now AI is this to the max, basically the demand curve of all human interest. Pretty unbelievable. And the asymmetry is growing by the day. But still, we are not there yet.
And for anyone who fundamentally needs their views changed on this, I recommend Vaclav Smil, How the World Really Works:
"Modern civilization will remain fundamentally dependent on the fossil fuels used in the production of these indispensable materials (ammonia, steel, concrete, and plastics). No AI, no apps, and no electronic messages will change that."
The world will revolve around that for decades to come! Thinking that AI eats the world is a Silicon Valley story and feels real inside of SWE circles but talk to some nurses or firefighters or people growing food and you will realize what a narrow field of view that actually is.
- Origin - A genetic history of the Americas by Jennifer Raff. Recent evidence of how humans came to the Americas; it's a significantly different story than our conventional wisdom account.
Cows, Pigs, Wars, and Witches by Marvin Harris. How cultural norms establish collective behavior.
The Extermination of the American Bison. Written in the late 1800s as the tragedy was unfolding. Lots on great detail on how and why we decimated a keystone species in a matter of a few decades.
Plato's Revenge by William Ophuls. A concise manifesto on societal change. Lays out a vision for a new post-growth, post-oil, ecological consciousness that incorporates modern science, religion and philosophy.
Four Thousand Weeks. Far from a self-help time-management book, this is more a philosophy book on human's relationship with time. Delightful read.
Breath by James Nestor. Modern humans are breathing incorrectly due to factors of modern life. An exploration of the science and art of breathing properly.
Bernoulli's Fallacy by Aubrey Clayton. In the statistical wars, this book takes a strong stance: Bayesian is unequivocally better. He exploses the racist/colonial history of frequentist statistics, as well as the fundamental flaws in their math. Posits that mis-applied frequentist methods are to blame for the reproducibility crisis in science.
How the World Really Works by Vaclav Smil. A no-nonsense, factual account of the systems that keep our modern globalized society running.
Elements of Clojure by Zach Tellman. A concise, high-level philosophy about how we build and compose abstractions. One of those books where every sentence is gold. My only wish that the book wasn't tied to Clojure (most of the book is applicable to any language, despite the title).
Tidy First? by Kent Beck. How and when to make structural changes (refactoring, architecture, paying down tech debt) vs behavioral changes (new features, bug fixes). You need both, and you can use economic theory as a guide for when to invest in one or the other. But you need to treat them differently.
Numerical Linear Algebra for Programmers by Dragan Djuric. A code-centric introduction to common linear algrebra routines, Using Clojure and the neaderthal library - a high-level API for fast math optimized for CPU and GPU hardware.
- - Ballou, Brendan. Plunder: Private Equity's Plan to Pillage America.
- Smil, Vaclav. How the World Really Works: The Science Behind How We Got Here and Where We're Going.
- Doucleff, Michaeleen. Hunt, Gather, Parent: What Ancient Cultures Can Teach Us About the Lost Art of Raising Happy, Helpful Little Humans.
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