Energy transitions
Contrary to common impression, global energy use in the 19th century was dominated by wood, not coal; and in the 20th century by coal, not oil. Not until 1964 did oil overtake coal as the world's prime mover. Even today, coal provides the world more energy than natural gas. Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects shows that any energy transition -- the interval between the introduction of a new primary energy source and its rise to 20-30 percent of a national or global energy market -- takes decades or even centuries. Energy transitions are inherently complex and intractably prolonged affairs. Despite the well-nigh universal acceptance of the cogency and urgency of the need for human civilization to wean itself from its primary dependence on fossil fuels, there is no similarly broad acceptance of the fact that our energy transition to carbon-neutral and renewable energy sources must unfold on the scale of decades, not years. This book describes the history of modern society's dependence on fossil fuels and the prospects for the transition to a nonfossil world. Vaclav Smil makes it clear that this transition will not be accomplished easily, and that it cannot be accomplished within the timetables established by the Obama administration. - Publisher.
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- You are both right and wrong at the same time.
Long time ago when Siemens in Germany was still building nuclear power plants, I was working in the nuclear power plant engineering department. After the year 2022 when the Russia invaded Ukraine, the gas shortages and the following costs hikes renewed my interest energy sector. Why didn't German reverse it's anti-nuclear stance, even with war in Europe?
Was is the general lack of knowledge of physical, technological and economical aspects of energy, both in German population and decision makers?
The political aspect became clearer after reading "Akte Atomausstieg" by Daniel Gräber.
https://www.perlentaucher.de/buch/daniel-graeber/akte-atomau...
Little bit of money from oil and gas industry always helps.
https://correctiv.org/en/latest-stories/2022/10/07/gazprom-l...
https://www.politico.eu/article/robert-habeck-germany-qatar-...
I think solar and wind are interesting technologies, (solar almost magical - turning photons of light inside thin layer of doped silicon into electrons) but by itself insufficient to power modern world. They are intermittent, weather dependent and low density. Yes the sun and wind come free from Sun, the machines that convert the energy, store it and distribute it are not. Minerals have to be mined, machines build, transported, installed and then disposed off.
Recommended reading:
"Sustainable Energy – Without the Hot Air" by Sir David John Cameron MacKay
Books by Vaclav Smil:
Energy and Civilization: A History
Energy Transitions: Global and National Perspectives
How the World Really Works
"Why Nuclear Power Has Been A Flop" - The Gordian Knot of the 21st Century
There are still big hydrocarbon reserves, gas/oil for atleast 100 years, coal 200 years, at current consumption rates. I fear that, if we don't use the only carbon free high density energy source and cling our hopes to the mirage of renewables, we will transform our atmosphere to hell.
When even the oil and gas giants advertise for renewables, you know that renewables will never replace fossil fuels.
"gas the perfect partner for renewable energies"
https://totalenergies.com/news/news/natural-gas-integral-par...
- On sources: I'm highly partial to the work of William Ophuls who's been writing on this topic for a half century. His PhD thesis was published in 1977 as Ecology and the Politics of Scarcity (with an update in the early 1990s). That largely lays out the problematique, both in terms of resources and political dynamics. The book's old enough that many of its own projections can be tested, and I think these hold out exceptionally well, particularly in highlighting the (then future) rise of China as a global economic, political, and military force. Ophuls has gone on to suggest at least the framework of solutions, most especially in Plato's Revenge (2009), though that remains fairly high level. What really makes Ophuls's works tremendously valuable is his bibliographic notes which are comprehensive and, to use a favourite word of his, synoptic. The note for Ecology in particular covers much of the previous several decades' literature on growth and perspectives from both optimistic and pessimistic viewpoints, and Ophuls is exceedingly fair in considering both. I've gone back to many of those sources myself (Maddox, Kahn, Simon) to compare notes. I've actually typed out the note from Plato's Revenge, which captures a sense of his practice, though that focuses more on recent and political topics: <https://web.archive.org/web/20230607050023/https://old.reddi...>. In that sense, Ophuls is an excellent entry point into the literature as a whole. He has a website at <http://www.ophuls.org/William_Ophuls/Home.html> though in various states of disrepair.
Ophuls's political-ecological approach is being carried on by Thomas Homer-Dixon: <https://homerdixon.com/writing/>
There are other authors: Bill McKibben's Eaarth (sic), Joel Magnusonn's The Approaching Great Transformation, the book Natural Capitalism by Paul Hawken, Amory Lovins, and L. Hunter Lovins, all of which I have to hand. Vaclav Smil has written his own damned library on resources and sustainability from a technical perspective, largely looking backwards though with some forward-looking elements. I particularly recommend Energy in World History (1992, 2019) and Energy and Civilization (2017). Energy Transitions (2016) tackles the specific question of converting to a sustainable-energy path: <Energy Transitions>. And there's a long list of other Smil publications.
Kate Rayworth's Doughnut Economics is another prescriptive work looking at ways forward. <https://www.kateraworth.com/>
The original Limits to Growth (Meadows, Meadows, Randers, & Behrens) remains relevant, and is freely available online: <https://donellameadows.org/the-limits-to-growth-now-availabl...>. I strongly recommend reading primary sources over hot takes, interpretations, and commentaries. It's also helpful to remember that LtG served not as a prescription but as an alarm: there's a clear problem and we've got to wake up to it. Sadly, more than 50 years onward, that alarm continues to be ignored by many (including within this thread).
The now-defunct Worldwatch Institute published an annual State of the World publication which was an anthology of articles on sustainability generally, from 1984--2017, and give an excellent sense of the breadth and progress of thinking on these topics. Those are mostly available via the Internet Archive: <https://archive.org/search?query=worldwatch+institute+state+...>
Worldwatch's founder, Lester R. Brown, has written numerous books, his latest covers this topic, The Great Transition: Shifting from Fossil Fuels to Solar and Wind Energy <http://www.earth-policy.org/press_room/C68/market_forces_dri...>
Looking at the energy picture alone, there's David MacKay's Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air, which breaks down the technical picture, with a focus on Britain though applicable elsewhere, clearly and soberly. Freely available online: <http://www.withouthotair.com/>
That's just skimming the top of a huge literature. There are a tremendous number of different viewpoints, of topics and approaches, and of course disagreement. Contrary to the assertions of some, however, there are specific and actionable recommendations to be found. Looking into the bibliographies and notes of the works listed should launch you further in whatever direction you care to explore.
- If that's more than an idle question, I'd recommend Vaclav Smil's Energy Transitions:
http://www.worldcat.org/title/energy-transitions-history-req...
The same author has just updated his book on energy in world history, this past May. I've read the earlier version and it is excellent, I have reason to believe the update is an improvement on that.
http://www.worldcat.org/title/energy-and-civilization-a-hist...
- If that's your misbegotten model of reality, may I suggest some reading material. Technology is dependent on energy, not the other way 'round.
Vaclav Smil, Energy in World History
http://www.worldcat.org/title/energy-in-world-history/oclc/4...
Smil's Energy Transitions addresses switching between primary sources of energy:
http://www.worldcat.org/title/energy-transitions-history-req...
Manfred Weissenbacher, Sources of Power, in two volumes:
http://www.worldcat.org/title/before-oil-the-ages-of-foragin...
http://www.worldcat.org/title/oil-age-and-beyond/oclc/837625...
Limits to Growth is the old classic:
http://www.worldcat.org/title/limits-to-growth/oclc/70551520...
The 30 year update:
http://www.worldcat.org/title/limits-to-growth-the-30-year-u...
For a view of the political and social realities of addressing limits, I can't recommend William Ophuls, Ecology and the Politics of Scarcity highly enough.
http://www.worldcat.org/title/ecology-and-the-politics-of-sc...
Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies, spells out the more general dynamic.
http://www.worldcat.org/title/collapse-of-complex-societies/...
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