The Premonition
How three groups — a California public health official, an incidental virologist, and a presidential pandemic task force — came together to deal with viral infections, including COVID, and the American public-health system, including the Center for Disease Control.
Stats for nerds
3recommend
8mentions
7people
2021–2022years
38% recommend63% neutral
Mentions per year
What Hacker News says
- Yes. If you want a really good explanation of how it happened and the effects it’s practically the subject of The Premonition by Michael Lewis
- The CDC is not so much asleep at the wheel, we just don't have any kind of coherent public health system in the USA. There's basically an independent public health officer for practically every county, and there's very little coordination between them and the CDC.
Michael Lewis' book "The Premonition" is eye-opening to how dysfunctional public health is in the US.
And it's not like he's alone, even the head of the CDC this week called for a reform of the public health system in the US (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/21/rochelle-walensky-c...). The only picture I'm getting is that the CDC doesn't really feel like they can do anything.
- Thank you for following up.
The first point dosen’t really do anything for me because I did cite California as one of many US states holding a referendum.
The 2nd point is a more interesting debate and it may involve some preference.
For my money, I would much rather be Swiss than Singaporean.
Swiss trains run on time and the infrastructure is plenty good compared to Singapore. You could switch this out for a more free and still very competent state like Taiwan.
Of note: questions of citizenship in Switzerland are decided at the Canton, not the Federal level. Your neighbors are making the decision as to whether they want you to become a citizen. Not some far away bureaucrat.
An argument for your stated preference of more expertise is hinted at in this review in what I think is the book of the year, “The Premonition” by Michael Lewis. They cite a book “10% Less Democracy.” There is some merit to this in the short run—but in the long run, I would rather be Swiss. (And I would be on the side where I would be happy to have the union expect more responsibility from me. For example, I would not be in favor of shortening the time of service.)
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/06/th...
- "The C.D.C. should lead America’s response to viral exigencies. But the agency isn’t a crisis organization. It lacks the infrastructure to mobilize a rapid response and is too hidebound and process driven to move quickly."
This resonates with what I read in "The Premonition" by Michael Lewis
- You complain that the CDC should have had better communication when it's not their job to re-educate a whole population in 2 weeks about what science is, which is clearly a failure of the education system. Whatever mea culpa that CDC person is going through in that particular interview does not change the facts.
You complain about the CDC to fuck up plans (flatten the curve! -> eradicate covid! -> lol nvm its endemic now)", when that was outside of their power, being sabotaged by that mass murderer clown in the white house.
You are not complaining about what their plan was, just about how it failed, which is clearly outside of what they can affect.
Try to stick to one opinion.
If you want some information about things to criticize about what their plan was, Michael Lewis' 'The Premonition' is a whole book about that shit show. Their biggest problem was that they were not an agency built to actually fight a pandemic, but tried to study it first. However, none of these bad plans even matter when the executive has other ideas.
- >… are actively and continuously modified by policymakers exempt from democratic oversight
Are we certain this is a bad thing? Looking over the last couple decades of American politics, the politicians typically optimize for short term outcomes, and not necessarily optimal outcomes for their constituents but whatever it is that will best accommodate their own careers.
One could argue that you absolutely need specialists/technocrats running the Fed, if you’re going to have a Fed at all.
One data point - a key takeaway from Michael Lewis’s book The Premonition was a damning assessment of the CDC and the top leadership in California’s public health. And while Lewis isn’t a Trump fan, he didn’t spare Democrats.
As COVID spreading across America, California’s politically appointed top public health expert literally did nothing and squashed any attempt by her team from devising any policy. She downplayed the seriousness of the virus, and as Lewis calls out, she had no significant background in infectious disease or specific qualifications for the job other than being given that role by the California governor because of goals around non white women in leadership positions.
Meanwhile, the CDC provided zero leadership, simply because the head is appointed by the President, and was afraid of upsetting Trump.
You could argue that instead of political appointees, you want constituents to directly vote for these roles. Given the typical Americans apathy or general lack of knowledge around some of these complex topics, I’m not convinced that’s a great idea.
