Empty Planet
Explores the pros and cons of a declining global population, including worker shortages, lower risk of famine, and greater affluence and autonomy for women.
Stats for nerds
6recommend
16mentions
12people
2019–2024years
44% recommend50% neutral6% critical
Mentions per year
What Hacker News says
- Pick up a copy of Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline by Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson; ISBN13: 9781984823229. Contains interviews with women indicating what I quoted from various cultures. Women want less children than men and society want them to have (TLDR).
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/545397/empty-planet... (“Once a woman receives enough information and autonomy to make an informed and self-directed choice about when to have children, and how many to have, she immediately has fewer of them, and has them later.”)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... | https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2 ("Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come.")
https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-... ("Our World in Data: What explains the declining fertility rate?")
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/the-exp... ("Pew Research: 57% of adults under 50 who say they’re unlikely to ever have kids say a major reason is they just don’t want to; 31% of those ages 50 and older without kids cite this as a reason they never had them")
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-... ("64% of young women say they just don't want children, compared to 50% of men.")
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68402139 ("Why South Korean women aren't having babies: The reason women are not having children now is because they have the courage to talk about it.")
- > Pick up a copy of Empty Planet
Haven't read this, thanks for the recommendation.
> Once a woman receives enough information and autonomy to make an informed and self-directed choice about when to have children, and how many to have, she immediately has fewer of them, and has them later.
I do not agree with this premise.
> adults under 50 who say they’re unlikely to ever have kids say a major reason is they just don’t want to
This is like asking the anorexic why they don't eat and believing them when they tell you that they're "just not hungry".
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40982392 (citations)
https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-... ("Our World in Data: What explains the declining fertility rate?")
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/the-exp... ("57% of adults under 50 who say they’re unlikely to ever have kids say a major reason is they just don’t want to; 31% of those ages 50 and older without kids cite this as a reason they never had them")
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-... ("Why more U.S. adults are choosing not to have kids: 64% of young women say they just don't want children, compared to 50% of men.")
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/population-policies-0... ("Chinese women unimpressed by government's plan to make more babies")
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/20/the-last-gener... ("‘The last generation’: the young Chinese people vowing not to have children")
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-koreas-fert... ("South Korea's fertility rate, already the world's lowest, continued its dramatic decline in 2023, as women concerned about their career advancement and the financial cost of raising children decided to delay childbirth or to not have babies.")
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-08-07/latin-... | http://archive.today/RFf3U ("Bloomberg: The Age of the Big Latin American Family Is Over")
> Some of the reasons for this trend in Latin America are similar to those elsewhere: There is less social pressure for women to have babies at a young age. Contraception is more accepted and more available. People are living longer and spending more time in school before entering the workforce. Couples tend to wait until achieving a certain standard of living before considering children.
> But there are also reasons specific to Latin America. Simone Cecchini, director of the demographic center at the UN’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, says the region has made considerable progress in reducing the number of teenage pregnancies. On the other hand, he notes, its recurrent macroeconomic crises and financial uncertainties tend to discourage people’s interest in becoming parents.
> In 1950, Latin America’s fertility rates were similar to Africa’s. By the end of this century, he says, they will match Europe’s. Demographically speaking, “this is a very significant and rapid change.”
I also highly recommend the book "Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline" on this topic.
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/545397/empty-planet...
- There are many steps needed in order to "create those new things." Not all of them can be automated in the short-term or the medium-term for that matter. That's where most though not all of the job growth will concentrate.
Labor shortages are not a temporary phenomenon, whether here in the US or elsewhere. They are already locked for at least several generations due to present-day demographics and family trends. Empty Planet by Darrell Bricker & John Ibbitson explains why far better than I can.
There are plenty of open jobs for all types of skills. Not everyone needs to be retrained as an engineer.
- With worldwide population growth curves flattening and population pyramids inverting, countries of tomorrow will be positively clamouring for immigrants.
A good book to read on the topic is Empty Planet by Bricker & Ibbitson[1]. One of their observations is that the country best placed to weather the coming demographic storm is the US, as they have a ready supply of immigrants south of their border. Every other country will have to compete, and some such as China will be in dire straits due to past misguided policies.
[1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/37585564-empty-planet
- The book Empty Planet is a very interesting read that looks around the world at various countries where population is declining such as Korea and Japan and European countries where this is about to happen as well. The book is mentioned in the paper.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/37585564-empty-planet
This paper on the economic consequences is also interesting. It popped up on various economics blogs when it came out.
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