Name: The success equation
ISBN: 9781422184233

The success equation

'In most domains of life, skill and luck seem hopelessly entangled. Different levels of skill and varying degrees of good and bad luck are the realities that shape our lives--yet few of us are adept at accurately distinguishing between the two. Imagine what we could accomplish if we were able to tease out these two threads, examine them, and use the resulting knowledge to make better decisions. In this provocative book, Michael Mauboussin helps to untangle these intricate strands to offer the structure needed to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck. He offers concrete suggestions for making these insights work to your advantage. Once we understand the extent to which skill and luck contribute to our achievements, we can learn to deal with them in making decisions. "The Success Equation" helps us move toward this goal by: (1) Establishing a foundation so we better understand skill and luck, and can pinpoint where each is most relevant, (2) Helping us develop the analytical tools necessary to understand skill and luck, and (3) Offering concrete suggestions about how to take these findings and put them to work. Showcasing Mauboussin's trademark wit, insight, and analytical genius, "The Success Equation" is a must-read for anyone seeking to make better decisions--in business and in life."--Publisher's website.

What Hacker News says

DeBraidJan 2017

One of the best 'Talks at Google' via Michael Mauboussin "The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck"

Thesis: where absolute talent/skill is high, variance in relative talent is low, thus luck > skill.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JLfqBsX5Lc

thread

sayemmJul 2014

Best post on luck, similar to this one, is by Paul Buchheit, "Serendipity finds you" - http://paulbuchheit.blogspot.com/2010/10/serendipity-finds-y...

And the best book IMO is by Michael J. Mauboussin, "The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Sports, Business, and Investing" - http://www.amazon.com/Success-Equation-Untangling-Business-I...

Way better than Nassim Nicholas Taleb's work, he's got his head up his ass way too much and makes too many hyperbolic remarks.

thread

ForHackernewsJun 2018

This isn't only a problem with technology: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/why-winners-keep-winning-4e7f22...

> Both King and Rowling’s foray into undercover writing reveals a harsh truth about success and social status — winners keep winning. This idea is formally known as cumulative advantage, or the Matthew effect, and explains how those who start with an advantage relative to others can retain that advantage over long periods of time. This effect has also been shown to describe how music gets popular, but applies to any domain that can result in fame or social status. I discovered this concept by reading Michael Mauboussin’s The Success Equation where he writes:

>> The Matthew effect explains how two people can start in nearly the same place and end up worlds apart. In these kinds of systems, initial conditions matter. And as time goes on, they matter more and more.

thread

hugh4lifeMar 2018

A bit of a tangent but here's something I stumbled on recently:

Vox: A statistical analysis of luck vs skill in sports. They interview the author of The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNlgISa9Giw

I've been trying to get into hockey lately and I doubt It'll last because there seems to be too much randomness to it. I feel like I would enjoy it more were it 4-on-4. I think I would also enjoy it more if each side were given 1-2 free powerplays per period. Hockey fans in the youtube comments say that there's more parity in the NHL than other sports leagues and that's skewing the calculation for luck vs randomness.

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/the180/the-psychology-of-terror-a-fo...

thread