Six Colors

I would argue yes. The two port MacBook Pro, in my opinion, was launched to replace the MacBook Air when it came out in 2016 [1]. It didn’t have a Touch Bar, for example, and based on my conversations with Apple at that time, I feel very strongly it was meant to replace the Air in the lineup (the 12” MacBook was another attempt to replace the Air, that one I think we can blame a lot more of on Intel). Apple never told me this outright, but that was absolutely the impression I got about how it was being positioned against the MacBook Pro with four ports and it was how I reviewed the first release of that model.

For a variety of reasons, it didn’t work. Not only was the price higher, the port selection (just two TB3s at a time when the industry hadn’t moved en masse to USB-C, remember, this was four years ago) was really limiting. And of course, the keyboard drama.

It is my contention, though I have no proof, that Apple didn’t want to release the redesigned Retina MacBook Air in 2018, but had to based on continued sales of the older model and the lack of love for the Touch Bar free MacBook Pro. (Recall, even after the redesign, Apple was still selling a Broadwell-based MacBook Air, technically into 2019. That was essentially the same MacBook Air that was first released in March 2015.)

Once the MacBook Air was redesigned, the two-port MBP never made any sense, even with the re-added Touch Bar. In fact, every single year, when I participate in Jason Snell's Apple Report card…

The problem with this viewpoint, is that's exactly what they've been doing with Logic and Final Cut and that's proved to be a failed strategy (both of those applications have shed users for the last decade, specifically the problem they've both made is prioritizing larger platform priorities over the needs of creators. E.g., they both introduced bundled file formats, bundled file formats are great for long-term platform goals [e.g., cross-device sync], but are terrible for professionals who need to micromanage massive individual media files, that are often edited with several different apps).

The reason it's not working is the incentives internal to Apple aren't great, they aren't (significant) revenue generators, so they're seen as disposable, and by choosing the wrong priorities (platform over creators), they end up losing to competitors where it's a primary revenue generator, because those other apps are fighting tooth-and-nail to stay ahead.

One way of solving all this is to try and make it a revenue generator, and I don't think a revenue generator at Apple's scale is possible without making it a subscription. Also just note that services has been Apple's most reliable recent growth area https://sixcolors.com/post/2024/05/2024-q1-apple-results-90-8-billion-revenue-services-record/

I feel like the problem is that it isn't a huge market opportunity (at least by Apple scale).

Checking out these graphs about Apple's revenues, apparently Mac revenues are pretty flat, while iPhone revenues continue to skyrocket (currently 5X Mac revenues!): https://sixcolors.com/post/2020/01/fun-with-charts-a-decade-of-apple-growth/

So sure, a hobbyist-approved Mac desktop would please you and me and plenty of other geeks, but they'd also cannibalize their Mac Pro sales somewhat, and when it's all said and done, their Mac revenues would still probably be in the same ballpark. So, why do that when they can pour effort into new phones or TV services or AirPods or whatever?

The thing that worries me is that the hobbyist/geek is often the one who turns lots of others onto a technology. I'm probably where I am right now because my geek uncle passed down his used Mac to me and showed me Hypercard. And I'm pretty sure there are people who own Macs today that wouldn't if it not for me. I think appeasing the geeks is worth more than the direct profit or revenue that such a model would bring in, but in ways that aren't as immediately evident on the quarterly report.

Apple will never intentionally prolong upgrade cycles for expensive laptops by offering you a cheaper device that can “do everything.”

If that were the case, they’d be making much more money from laptops than from iPads, right?

If they were making just as much money from iPads, though, it would make sense to make the iPad as good as possible. Cannibalizing Mac sales wouldn’t be a big deal.

Per the Six Colors breakdown of Apple’s financial results (https://sixcolors.com/post/2023/08/charts-apple-q3-2023-results/) Macs and iPads accounted for 8% and 7% of their revenue.

The iPad was conceived as a media consumption device, sitting between a phone and a laptop. Steve Jobs said this at the beginning.

They’ve gone back on plenty of things Steve Jobs said (in many cases, Jobs himself was the one who did it).

I don’t think they have a religious objection to making the iPad useful, as you seem to be saying; I think they think they are making it useful, that the current design (including its limitations) is the best compromise.

Some of what's in my /Applications folder:

* Omnigroup's suite of apps for macOS and iOS

* Craft

* Drafts

* Fantastical

* Hook

* Marked

* Mela

* Rectangle

* Scrivener

* Postbox

[1]: https://www.omnigroup.com/blog/omni-roadmap-2022

[2]: https://www.craft.do

[3]: https://getdrafts.com

[4]: https://flexibits.com/fantastical

[5]: https://hookproductivity.com

[6]: https://marked2app.com

[7]: https://mela.recipes

[8]: https://rectangleapp.com

[9]: https://www.literatureandlatte.com/scrivener/overview

[10]: https://www.postbox-inc.com

[11]: https://www.macstories.net

[12]: https://sixcolors.com

The most useful apps still come from the indie developers; it's just not as high profile as it once was. It's become more artisanal.

If you read MacStories [11], Six Colors [12] and other indie Mac websites, you'd see lots of innovative Mac and iOS apps.

I liked this measured observation from Dan Moren, who linked to it on Six Colors:

"If you’re going to take away anything from this whole episode, I think the most important point is this isn’t a case where either Apple or the EU are wholly on the side of right. Apple may very well care about the security of its users, but it also wants to protect its profit cut from the App Store and the use of its platform. The EU may want to curtail the reach of big technology companies when it comes to their citizens’ best interests, but it also is a large organization that doesn’t entirely understand what’s feasible from a technological perspective and has its own ideological axes to grind. It’s always imperative to interrogate where an argument stems from and who stands to gain."

https://sixcolors.com/link/2024/01/breaking-down-apples-dma-response/