Matt Clancy, an economist, writes about innovation, scientific progress, independent discovery and whether ideas are getting harder to find.
HN commenters cite it in discussions of whether inventions would happen anyway, using his independent discovery post to argue that Amazon's success was unlikely to be replicated.
The counter argument is to examine how likely it is that someone actually would have created Amazon and not just a cruddy online Wal-Mart
https://mattsclancy.substack.com/p/how-common-is-independent-discovery
Looks pretty unlikely to me, personally, judging by the low stats on independent discovery