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    Noahpinion

    noahpinion.blog · Personal blog · on HN since 2020

    Noah Smith writes about economics, public policy, manufacturing, China, and technology, with a focus on data and charts.

    Visit blogHN submissions
    EconomicsCulture & Society
    What HN says

    Commenters recommend it among economics newsletters and cite individual posts on phones, US industrial capacity, and AI. One calls himself a big fan.

    Stats for nerds
    422HN people shared it
    912linked in comments
    8.2Kstory points
    Aug 2026last shared
    2022people per year2026

    Top posts on HN

    1. 1
      Why is China smashing its tech industry?
      10 people · 390 points · first shared 2021 · 383 comments on HN
    2. 2
      Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes
      2 people · 382 points · first shared 2022 · 367 comments on HN
    3. 3
      No one knows how much the government can borrow
      1 person · 248 points · first shared 2021 · 318 comments on HN
    4. 4
      America's future could hinge on whether AI slightly disappoints
      3 people · 243 points · first shared 2025 · 369 comments on HN
    5. 5
      The Left-NIMBY Canon
      3 people · 240 points · first shared 2021 · 298 comments on HN
    6. 6
      Debunking our narratives of the late 70s and early 80s
      3 people · 190 points · first shared 2021 · 242 comments on HN
    7. 7
      Interview with Patrick Collison
      2 people · 186 points · first shared 2021 · 53 comments on HN
    8. 8
      Against Hickelism
      2 people · 184 points · first shared 2021 · 101 comments on HN
    9. 9
      Interview: Vitalik Buterin
      1 person · 137 points · first shared 2022 · 127 comments on HN
    10. 10
      Decade of the Battery
      1 person · 135 points · first shared 2024 · 119 comments on HN

    What HN people wrote when they linked it

    • bwbJan 2025

      My recommendation is to check out economics blogs and newsletters. I am a big fan of Noah, and there are a ton of great ones on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

      Why do I like these?

      It switches the discussion to the impact and cost to society. This removes it from being a belief system and shifts it more to taking action and justifying it with data.

      For example, if you want to build a wall across the USA / Mexico better, don't talk about why you believe that is important... let's talk about costs of building a wall of that size; let's talk about how effective it is based on data from areas with walls, let's talk about how much immigrants power the USA and contribute to our economy using data, let's talk about how we build houses without immigrants, let's talk about crime stats showing that immigrants commit less crime than non-immigrants, let's talk about how we can expand legal immigration to create more jobs for everyone, etc...

      The comment section on Noah's Substack is great.

    • nozzlegearJul 2026

      I think people are, rightly or wrongly, identifying goalpost moving re: coding agents are only just this year working well enough to impact work. I'm reminded of a quote I read last year from one of my favorite writers, Noah Smith:

      > The debate over whether AI is taking people’s jobs may or may not last forever. If AI takes a lot of people’s jobs, the debate will end because one side will have clearly won. But if AI doesn’t take a lot of people’s jobs, then the debate will never be resolved, because there will be a bunch of people who will still go around saying that it’s about to take everyone’s job. Sometimes those people will find some subset of workers whose employment prospects are looking weaker than others, and claim that this is the beginning of the great AI job destruction wave. And who will be able to prove them wrong?

      Source: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/ai-and-jobs-again

    • jakozaurNov 2022

      I am long-time fun of Economist, but unfortunately the quality decreases. E.g. last issue EU is frozen and claim so many people will die in Europe due to high energy prices.

      First, I find they did not explain their model well. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

      Second, the correlation does not imply causation or whether extrapolations are solid. It looks like there might be mistakes on that front and there are many spurious correlations (e.g. high energy in the past might mean high unemployment).

      Third, so far the country experiencing freezing is the Ukraine due to power outages. Just one sentence mentioning, whether in Ukraine for sure many people are going to die due to distrusted power, heating or water supplies.

      So far on general economics, I love:
      https://noahpinion.substack.com/

      Though, it is hard for me to find comprehensive Economist replacement.

    • throwaway2037Feb 2023

      That's the only way we land on affordable housing in a market economy.

      For the record, the City of Berlin is one of the largest owners of rental property in... the City of Berlin. And, Germany is definitely a market economy. That said, in the United States, this would be probably be impossible. The economy and politics is much too classically liberal. (I'm not talking about Democrats == liberal.)

      Yes, I agree with your main point: "All new supply is good supply, period." Japan is very fair about this: The cities look visually sh-tty (during the daytime) -- architectural eyesore / concreted mess... but the prices are reasonable for middle class people. Noah Smith wrote about it:

      Japanese cities like Tokyo have managed to build enough housing to make housing costs fall

      Ref: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/actually-japan-has-changed-a-lot

    • sienJan 2026

      I use the fantastic Inoreader that is better than Google Reader was.

      I follow things that post maybe once or twice a week or once a month. For things with new information every day, like Hacker News, I check the website.

      A few of the things that I follow that may be a bit different for people are :

      Arnold Kling - a PhD economist who worked in technology and is genuinely different.

      https://arnoldkling.substack.com/

      Noah Smith - a PhD economist who writes about economics and the world

      https://www.noahpinion.blog/

      Roger Pielke Jnr - a guy with a PhD who writes about climate and energy and was excommunicated by the climate priesthood.

      https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/

      Andrew Sullivan - a conservative, gay, HIV positive, Catholic writer who campaigned for gay marriage.

      https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/

    • throw0101cDec 2024

      See perhaps "Insurance companies aren't the main villain of the U.S. health system":

      * https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/insurance-companies-arent-the-main

      The margins and ROE for health insurance companies aren't that big, health providers on the other hand…

      Of course that doesn't necessarily mean the insurance companies are useful:

      * https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/health-insurance-is-a-racket

      But given the realpolitik of when Obamacare was passed, the current US system was probably the only way at the time to get to universal healthcare. The ACA barely managed to get passed after all (219–212 and 60–39):

      * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordable_Care_Act

      “Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best.” ― Otto von Bismarck

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