H I Sutton

How they were hit? Multiple drones overwhelming relatively small number of air defense systems. Systems like Patriot are great against several very capable targets like ballistic missiles. Such (expensive centralized) systems do much worse against multiple widespread targets like an armada of low flying low speed drones (add to that low speed cut-off filter to avoid hitting general aviation and the likes).

Point defense systems like Skyshield (or even that very old and cheap - $2M - Gepard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard ) work wonderfully against all those drones coming in.

Heck, even just soldiers with MANPADs would have easily shot down those drones (you just have to distribute those soldiers to all those strategic objects which hasn't been done)

We have classic situation here - everybody have been watching Ukraine war for 4 years, yet nobody has prepared for such style of war.

>I am unconvinced that even AMZN's pocket change could realiably protect against the kind of attacks we see in this war

No even low flying slow drone - pretty typical situation of top Russian cruise missile shot down by Gepard

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/zdbvim/a_ukrainian_gepard_shooting_down_a_russian_cruise/

Also AMZN has its own drones dept - in "hot" zones in "hot" times they can put several people with drones (in the high speed configuration) to be used for interception. This is basically how Ukranians have been doing, and that is an experience they…

This is complicated. For context, there's a 1936 international treaty that regulates traversal of the Bosporus Straits called the Montreux convention [1]. it generally allows the passage of warships with a couple of exceptions and it depends on if Turkey is at war or not.

What happened in 2022 is that Turkey decided Russia's invasion was a "war" (in the context of a treaty) and thus limited access to the Black Sea to Russian warships. But that comes with a couple of restrictions.

The most notable one is that Russia is allowed to use the passage for ships based in the Black Sea and that was important. Ukraine could (and did) attack ships in Sevastopol and when that happened, they would have to retreat to repair (if possible). And they went to Syria to do that one several occasions.

Turkey's relationship with Europe, NATO, the US and Russia is... complicated. Like Turkey is the largest military in NATO (other than the US of course) and does pretty much whatever the US tells them to, but they also buy Russian armaments (eg missile systems) and the US has stationed nuclear weapons in Turkey. And while buying Russian arms, Turkey is selling drones to Ukraine who is using them to attack Russia. And Turkey, despite being a NATO member, has been at war with Greece, another NATO member.

Russia also has used internal waterways to bypass the Bosporus Straits [2].

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits

[2]:…

This actually seems to be happening already in regards to manufacturing. I read an obscure article a while back about autonomous narco submarines surfacing in Spain, which suggests a certain sophistication and standardization of the manufacturing process [1].

> The [d]rone submarines are essentially identical, suggesting series production of a refined design.

They also found a "narco surfboard" which presumably disguises drug shipments in an abandoned surfboard. In the arms race between traffickers and enforcers, I'd imagine both sides will be continuously developing increasingly sophisticated technology for underwater smuggling, especially given how much money is involved - so I could totally imagine a high-tech manufacturing industry emerge as a byproduct. I would also find it quite funny :)

1. http://www.hisutton.com/Narco-Drone-Submarine-Found-In-Spain.html

I have a library of work-related books (military). Most of the great ones have no digital alternative. Authors of rare or definitive works know to avoid digital formats. Last year I paid 200+ to get my hands on a newly printed book because i know it will still be relevant on my shelf in 10/20/30 years. After reading it once I may leave it on that shelf for years. One day i will need it again. I will know where to find it no matter what OS i will then be using.

Things like this cannot be bought digitally, nor would most readers want a digital copy. http://www.hisutton.com/pages/Book%20project.html

I cannot champion this guy enough. His website belongs jn the 90s (it needs the "www") but his skills in open source analysis and drawing are unmatched. (He draws in MS paint!)

http://www.hisutton.com/

https://youtu.be/PdKkR_lbLN0

Eh, most narco-submarines aren't really submarines; almost all are semi-submersible boats that run low in the water with snorkels.

However, organized crime using unmanned true submersibles might [soon, or presently] be feasible. The expertise needed to actually attack a cable in a constructive manner would be a significant barrier to clear, but not inconceivable for crime organizations that can kidnap and coerce tech professionals. The ability to splice fiber underwater with a drone submersible seems extremely advanced though. I think only a few nations might presently have such a capability.

Nice summary of narco subs from HI Sutton: http://www.hisutton.com/Narco%20Subs%20101.html and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BR18qhnGEpM

DARPA is interested in the WIG[1] craft (probably lobbied by Boeing, but that doesn't necessarily make it a bad idea for defense investment). This solicitation reads more like a plane that can swim vice a ship that can fly. I always wondered why Russia cancelled their WIG program [2], which was more like a ship that can fly a bit than the opposite. The story behind brilliant Russian engineer Rostislav Alexeyev [3], who championed the Russian WIG is fascinating.

1. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/08/darpa-requests-information-for-wing-in-ground-effect-aircraft-for-the-u-s-military/
2. http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Ekranoplan-WIG.html
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rostislav_Alexeyev