Mish Shedlock's blog covers global economics, central bank policy, markets, and financial news from a skeptical, contrarian view.
Fans on HN call it factual and prescient and recommend it as an alternative to mainstream economic commentary, though the comments given are mostly asides.
The dollar demise seems to be in vogue nowadays thanks in no small part to QE I and II. I guess it makes for good headlines, especially when gold is over $1430.
To those of you that may be interested in financial commentaries outside of mainstream I suggest the following:
- Mish [1]
- The automatic earth [2]
- Max Keiser [3]
- Jesse's Café Américain [4]
These can be classified more or less so in three different camps: inflationist, deflationist, and stagflation. But inflation/deflation here does not mean price increase, but credit expansion/contraction. Also, these blogs are all against the status quo, hence their non-mainstream designation. For that there is WSJ.
For starters, at the automatic earth [2], Illargi and Stonleigh give very detailed analysis of the current situation taking into account credit availability and peak oil for example. They argue that we will hit a deflation period (i.e., credit contraction) before any hyperinflation destroys the dollar.
Mish [1] is also in the deflationist camp and provides excellent commentary on current financial news. US centric but with good international coverage.
Max Keiser [3] is an inflationist. I believe that he has called correctly gold and silver trends (up and up) for the past decade. He’s a very vocal anti-to-big-to-fail commentator. I think that he’s currently spearheading a movement to get people to buy silver bullion in order to put JP Morgan out of business given their alleged silver shorts. Mish, while a good…
We're already well on our way to getting nowhere with this.
> Not-so-obviously, if I had qualms about my job I wouldn't be doing it. Some people are for sale, I'm not.
So participating in the financial industry driving the Western world's economy off a cliff is fine, but having to work with .NET is where you draw the line?
> I know these sites. They're rather juvenile
These sites discuss (the economic) Reality, and what's going on in it. Trying to discredit them is logical, of course, for someone working for the financial industry.
Here's someone with a more somber take on things, in case it helps: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ - he's on the same page with the aforementioned two, though.
> There is nothing bad about making money from financial services.
No? Well, what good is there about it? How does it benefit the real economy, where people use their time and skills to produce something of value, which they then exchange for goods and services as necessary?
What is it that grounds the financial industry into the real economy? In other words, in what ways is it not about making money with money?
> If you stretch it a bit, you can call it "making money with money" the same as you can argue that the sole reason for any imaginable job is making money. It's not.
Huh? A job is an arrangement where an employer pays someone a salary in exchange for using his time/skills in a way that benefits the employer (in a monetary sense, ultimately).
For both parties…
He is telling the truth.
Startup:
Record Number of Companies Pull Back on IPOs
http://www.newsmax.com/InvestingAnalysis/ipo-offerings-companies-initial/2011/09/20/id/411669
Europe:
EFSF - 133% Of German GDP To Cover All Of Europe's Bad Debt
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/explaining-how-just-announced-ecb-market-rescue-pledged-133-german-gdp-cover-all-europes-bad-de
Germany rejects idea of further EFSF expansion
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/germany-rejects-idea-of-further-efsf-expansion-2011-09-27?link=MW_latest_news
China:
Chinese growth could slow to zero in 2012
http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/18948/chinese-growth-could-slow-zero-2012
Cash Crunch in China Picks Up Momentum; Chinese Economy "Teetering On the Edge"
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/cash-crunch-in-china-picks-up-momentum.html
Japan:
Japanese economy contracted more severely than previously reported
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903285704576559380092114762.html
Japan auto lobby cuts 2011 sales outlook by 10 pct
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/27/autos-japan-idUSL3E7KR0RG20110927
US:
Consumer Confidence Stagnates Near Two-Year Low
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-27/u-s-economy-consumer-confidence-stagnates-near-two-year-low.html
Food stamp use rises to record 45.8 million
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/04/pf/food_stamps_record_high/index.htm
Overall:
Are We Headed Into A Recess/Depress-ion? The Answer In 9 Simple…
Vancouver had a big housing bubble, and now their sales have plummeted, so I would imagine the state government might struggle a little bit.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/vancouver-home-sales-drop-30-percent.html
However, overall Canada is in good shape financially compared to the other G20. Not alot of public/external debts. Here are the stats, as well as the other countries mentioned in the thread
Canada - 833 Billions external, 75.% GDP public
US - 13 Trillions external, 52.9% GDP public (~70T owed in social security/medicare uncounted)
England - 9 Trillions external, 60% GDP public
France - 5 Trillions external, 77% GDP public
Germany - 5 Trillions external, 72% GDP public
Israel - 84 Billions external, 78% GDP public
Netherlands - 3 Trillions external, 62% GDP public
Chile - 60 Billions external, 6.0%!! GDP public
Poland - 201 Billions external, 46.5% GDP public
Singapore - 19 Billions external, 113% GDP public
China - 340 Billions external, 16.5% GDP public
India - 223 Billions external, 58% GDP public
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html
Deflation seems more likely:
Fiat World Mathematical Model
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02/fiat-world-mathematical-model.html
Will this printing create [price] inflation? This is dependent very much on what money will do next. If banks will not lend and banks sit on that cash forever and ever like the great depression because the risk is too high and the banks do not know if the lending will end up in good assets or bad assets, and because banks are in so many bad assets now they probably will not lend at all.
That is the observation that Murray Rothbard made, that during the Great Depression that banks have chosen not to lend because the risk of accumulating bad assets was far to high. So they were sitting on massive reserves. That is what is developing right now.
A good example is what happened in Japan in 2001-2002 where the Bank of Japan pumped 300% at one stage and lending continued to collapse. I expect similar things to happen here. If lending will not increase we can conclude this will not be inflationary.
That is the worse advice I have ever heard. To the original poster- Nobody will care more about your own money, than you. Take responsibility for your wealth and enjoy it. Getting ahead and staying ahead involves responsibility and confidence in yourself. You will learn from mistakes and will be better for it. Personal finances and money management are important skills that are always overlooked. Based on your initial question, you already seem to have the right attitude. You will see fears of hyperinflation and fears of massive deflation in credit. There are some good economic blogs out there such as Mish's (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com). Read a few highly rated books from Amazon. Personally, if I had $2m I would buy land, physical gold, and hold on to my currency in various banks (and physically). Remember, $2m in the bank means that your bank probably is loaning out $1.8m of it (fractional reserve banking).