Yosha - Echecs
4 HN mentions · mentioned in 3 months, 2022–2024
23:08 · 448K views · Sep 25, 2022
Chess master Yosha Iglesias presents an analysis of Hans Niemann's games, highlighting a string of 100% engine-correlation games and comparing them with other players. It was published during the 2022 Niemann-Carlsen cheating scandal.
Cited as the source for the claim that Niemann had many 100% engine-match games; one commenter calls it a credible-seeming analysis.
4 comments from Hacker News
> Assume for a moment Hans did not cheat (aside from the times he admitted to cheating). In the scenario where he did not cheat - how amazing is his performance? ...In the scenario where he did not cheat, is he really on a Bobby Fischer-like ascendance? I think so, yes, and even considerably moreso. According to Yosha Iglesias[1] and her anonymous mathematician friend, for 5 tournaments in a row starting at the Philadelphia Open in July 2021 Hans Niemann played at an average engine correlation of 73%, beating Bobby Fischer's average engine correlation of 72% during his 20 game winning streak between 2 Dec. 1970 and 30 Sept. 1971. Fischer's peak rating was 2895 in October 1971 at 27yo. Niemann's peak rating was 2699 this month, October 2022, at 19yo. Also according to Yosha, in three years Niemann has played 10 games with a perfect 100% engine correlation and 23 games with engine correlations above 90%.[2] My own chess layman analysis of the experts' analyses is that the best chess players in the world right now generally play games with engine correlations ranging game to game from the mid-60%s to the high-80%s, with much rarer games in the 90%s, and games 100% engine correlated being a once or twice in a lifetime event. Magnus Carlson at his best has an engine correlation of 70%.[1] Unless he cheated, it is quite clear to me, at least, that Hans Niemann is the singular greatest chess player of all time. [1] this video [2] [LINK]
Hans is clearly cheating. Comparing his past games against what an engine would do is pretty damning. Chess engines are far superior to players and the best players in the world top out in the high 70s percent correlations (Magnus averages around 70%). Hans has a string of games at 100% correlation[0], meaning he's playing perfect games. Past players who achieved this later went on to admit to cheating[1]. Magnus knows this because he owns part of chess.com and presumably sees the data. Magnus has a lot riding on his statement. He wouldn't make it unless he was sure. [0] this video [1] [LINK]
There is a video explaining how Hans played ten 100% games (his moves matching 100% moves of what an engine would do) in the last three years and a lot of >90%: this video For reference, Magnus at his best does a 70% match with engines, and between 70-75% is historically enough to earn you the World Championship. This guy is consistently over 80%, come on. Reminds me of Lance Armstrong: a mediocre 90's cyclist that suddenly becomes the best in history, in such dominant fashion that I think everybody suspected something, but without proof you cannot do nothing about it.
The analysis mentions the correlation with the played moves vs. engines is ~95% for both players. But I recall a credible-seeming youtube analysis from last year's Hans Niemann cheating scandal which said the best players only have a ~70-75% correlation on average. this video I'm trying to cohere these two "facts". Does anyone know if the 2024 championship games simply played out along very well established lines?