Episode
Before Kalshi and Polymarket there was the Iowa Electronic Markets
Planet Money · Jun 24, 2026 · 23 min
Prediction markets aren’t new. Election betting was common until the 1940s, then mysteriously faded away. There was an entire political era when party bosses were expected to conspicuously gamble on their candidates (even if they secretly hedged). And in the 1980s, a few economists designed an election market that beat out election polling 74 percent of the time. Today, we’re running an excerpt…