
Profit through good times and bad with a resilient, diversified portfolio The Intelligent Asset Allocator has helped thousands of people like you build wealth through carefully diversified portfolios. Now, with global markets in constant flux, balancing risk and reward is more critical than ever. Self-taught investor William Bernstein offers no gimmicks, inside secrets, or magic solutions—just the facts about investing and calm, smart advice on how to build and manage a portfolio designed for the long run. This is all you need, despite claims of the advisors and pundits looking to profit from your hard-earned money. This easy-to-understand guide provides everything you need, including: * The basics of finance—historical, psychological, and institutional * Time-tested strategies for improving the risk/reward ratio * Ways to sharpen your focus to improve portfolio management Bernstein walks you through the fundamentals of important topics like multiple-asset portfolios, optimal asset allocations, market efficiency, and strategy implementation. No one knows the future of markets. Your forecast is as good as that of the last financial pundit you saw on TV. Trust your instincts, trust your research, and trust the proven-effect approach of The Intelligent Asset Allocator, and your portfolio will deliver returns through the blue skies and storms of financial markets.
I still believe in diversification. If an ETF is sufficiently diverse I will buy the ETF. Some ETFs are not - XLE is nearly 50% Chevron and Exxon!
You should also read Taleb if you want to understand the fallacy of unsystematic risk. He is difficult to read because of his overinflated ego but he has some persuasive ideas.
I'm guessing you're in the US. I'm sure you can find papers and articles doing back-testing to the 1920s, which would include the Great Depression. If you can wait long enough, things have always recovered and earned a return.
> Did you adjust your calculations for inflation? For the S&P 500, the absolute worst-case is 58 years of not being up, I believe. 1929 - 1987.
Not my calculations. That's also assuming that one has zero bonds: for most people, who are saving for retirement, the component of the portfolio that goes into fixed income rises as age approaches 65. What were bonds during that time?
Most average people don't have the stomach for 'raw' 100% equity holdings, and so bonds are often present; bonds also allow for having 'dry powder' available for rebalancing. Scenarios like these are why portfolio theory can be complicated:
* https://www.investopedia.com/managing-wealth/modern-portfoli...
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory
For good layman treatments on the subject I recommend the works of William J. Bernstein, The Intelligent Asset Allocator, The Four Pillars of Investing, and Rational Expectations:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._Bernstein
Recent interviews:
* https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/108 (podcast)
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haLGx8KlFvk (same, but video)
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GzkxkOEcWc
> Historically low bond yields: The room for rates to go lower is low.
One does not necessarily buy bonds for returns, but also (perhaps) to manage volatility (which is often used as a proxy to measure risk). And low bonds are not anything new:
* https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/05/low-bond-returns-ar...
And one has to look at the real return of bonds over the decades: yes nominal numbers are low now and were high in the past, but inflation was high in the past as well (e.g., 1980s).
It should resonate with the HN crowd as it starts from the basics and builds up a strategy. Very understandable. It then uses that to help you build an overall investment strategy.
Bernstein is in line with the Boglehead investing theory. Own the market, don't try and beat it.
It has served me very well.
It is a good book, I recommend it.