You can be a stock market genius
A comprehensive and practical guide to the stock market from a successful fund manager--filled with case studies, important background information, and all the tools you'll need to become a stock market genius. Fund manager Joel Greenblatt has been beating the Dow (with returns of 50 percent a year) for more than a decade. And now, in this highly accessible guide, he's going to show you how to do it, too. You're about to discover investment opportunities that portfolio managers, business-school professors, and top investment experts regularly miss--uncharted areas where the individual investor has a huge advantage over the Wall Street wizards. Here is your personal treasure map to special situations in which big profits are possible, including: • Spin-offs • Restructurings • Merger Securities • Rights Offerings • Recapitalizations • Bankruptcies • Risk Arbitrage
Stats for nerds
6recommend
9mentions
8people
2008–2024years
78% recommend11% neutral11% critical
Mentions per year
What Hacker News says
- I'm using LLMs to basically build "junior analysts" that monitor very niche types of companies -- think, junior mining companies, or very specific commodities futures... A lot of these spaces have tons of terrible companies and there's a lot of noise, so if you use a framework that is concrete enough, you can have LLM agents do various types of research for you, fill in the framework, and sift through the noise for you.
Case in point, my framework for mining companies is here: https://emergingtrajectories.com/a/pub/mining_company_risk_f... You can see the scores here: https://emergingtrajectories.com/c/copper_mining_companies
"Long term" -- we'll see, I expect to hold positions for 12-24 months.
For those interested, my work above is influenced by two important books: "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius Even if You're Not Too Smart" by Joel Greenblatt and "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" by Philip Tetlock. The idea from Joel's writing is to look for less liquid or less popular asset classes (or ones that structurally can't be invested in by the pros who are smarter/better-resourced than you), and Tetlock really drills process and research for long-term forecasting.
- The platforms are more or less the same. Schwab, E-Trade, TD Ameritrade, even Robinhood, all will take your deposits and buy your stocks. If you're depositing $10k plus, some of them might give you $100+ to go with them.
Your bigger decision is whether to go active or passive. For 90% or more of the population in your situation, the best thing to do is buy a Target Retirement Date fund, contribute to it regularly, and gradually build wealth the safe and boring way.
There is a very small percentage of people who can genuinely beat the market. If you're asking the question in OP, you're not there yet. Go back to option 1, park your money there, and do a lot of reading. "Where Are the Customers' Yachts" and "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius" (terrible title, great book) are good places to start.
- I studied economics in college, then I worked for a few years as a business journalist before I finally switched careers to IT systems engineering. The following is a list of my favorite books on financial securities, banking and investment theory. These books are generally comprehensible to anyone with an interest in the subject, regardless of their educational background.
Arrighi, Giovanni (1994) The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power and the Origins of Our Times
Brealey, Myers, Allen (2011) Principles of Corporate Finance, 10th ed.
Bruck, Connie (1988) Predators' Ball: Inside Story of Drexel Burnham and Rise of Junk Bond Raiders
Fisher, Philip (2003) Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings, 2nd ed.
Fridson, Martin and Fernando Alvarez (2002) Financial Statement Analysis, 3rd ed.
Graham, Benjamin, J. Zweig, D. Dodd (2006/08) Intelligent Investor, rev ed; Security Analysis, 6th ed.
Greenblatt, Joel (1999) You Can Be a Stock Market Genius
Greenwald, Kahn, Sonkin, Biema (2001) Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond
Henwood, Doug (1997) Wall Street: How It Works and for Whom
Levitt, Arthur (2003) Take on the Street: How to Fight for Your Financial Future
Lewis, Michael (2010/1989) Big Short; Liar's Poker
Lynch, Peter and John Rothchild (2000) One Up on Wall Street, 2nd ed.
Mishkin, Frederic (2004) Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7th ed.
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2005/10) Fooled by Randomness, 2nd ed.; Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2nd ed.
Vilar, Pierre (1976) A History of Gold and Money: 1450-1920
Tracy, John A. (2009) How to Read a Financial Report: Wringing Vital Signs out of the Numbers, 7th ed.
- Here's some: with why I like them
Thinking, problem solving related:
Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock: accurate forecasting
Thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman: how to avoid bias
Misbehaving: like thinking fast and slow but more hilarious
The checklist manifesto by Atul Gawande: the power of simple process
From Darwin to Munger by Peter Bevelin: lots of mental models to add to your latticework
Business management:
The Outsiders by William Thorndike: capital allocation
The hard thing about hard things by Ben Horowitz: some mental models for managers facing the real-life struggles of startups
Zero to One by Peter Thiel and Blake masters: for the chapter on what kinds of business are always going to be tough (i.e. ones in perfectly competitive industries)
Worldview:
The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why violence has declined
The making of modern economics by Mark Skousen (audiobook): explains various economic ideas through telling the history of the fathers of those ideas.
Investing:
You can be a stock market genius by Joel Greenblatt: where to look for undervaluation
The Essays of Warren Buffett by Lawrence Cunningham: Buffett's thoughts in Buffett's words, neatly categorised by topic
Competition Demystified by Bruce Greenwald: how to identify a high quality business
- I recently read You Can Be a Stock Market Genius by Joel Greenblatt and really like the style of the book and the ideas presented in it. I am learning about event driven investment, and want to read more about it. Greenblatt's book is almost 20 years old at this point. The basics are still the same, but some things have also changed in the last 20 years. What other books on the subject would you recommend. Thank you for the help!
- Here is my short list of favorite books on finance and economics:
FINANCIAL SECURITIES / BANKING / VENTURE CAPITAL
Bruck, Connie (1988) Predator's Ball: Inside Story of Drexel Burnham and Rise of Junk Bond Raiders
Draper, William (2011) Startup Game
Graham, Benjamin and Jason Zweig (2006) Intelligent Investor, revised ed.
_________ and David Dodd (2008) Security Analysis, 6E
Greenblatt, Joel (1999) You Can Be a Stock Market Genius
Greenwald, Kahn, Sonkin, Biema (2001) Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond
Henwood, Doug (1997) Wall Street: How It Works and for Whom
Levitt, Arthur (2003) Take on the Street: How to Fight for Your Financial Future
Lewis, Michael (1989) Liar's Poker: Rising Through the Wreckage on Wall Street
_________ (2010) Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine
STATISTICS
Ayres, Ian (2007) Super Crunchers: Why Thinking by Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart
Bernstein, Peter (1996) Against the Gods: Remarkable Story of Risk
Kahneman, Daniel (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow
Silver, Nate (2012) Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail, but Some Don't
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2005) Fooled by Randomness, 2E
_________ (2010) Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2E
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT / ENTREPRENEURSHIP / INNOVATION
Christensen, Clayton (1997) Innovator's Dilemma
Stone, Brad (2013) Everything Store: Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon
Wallace, James and Jim Erickson (1992) Hard Drive: Bill Gates and Making of the Microsoft Empire
Walton, Sam with John Huey (1992) Sam Walton: Made in America
Wilson, Mike (1996) Difference between God and Larry Ellison: Inside Oracle Corp
POLITICAL ECONOMY / THEORY / ECONOMIC HISTORY
Arrighi, Giovanni (1994) Long Twentieth Century
Braudel, Fernand (1979) Civilization & Capitalism 15th-18th Century, vol. 3: Perspective of the World, trans. Siân Reynolds
Brechin, Gray (2006) Imperial San Francisco: Urban Power, Earthly Ruin
Heilbroner, Robert (1999) Worldly Philosophers: Lives, Times & Ideas of Great Economic Thinkers, 7E
Marx, Karl (1867) Capital, vol. 1
Stiglitz, Joseph (2003) Roaring Nineties: A New History of the World’s Most Prosperous Decade
_________ (2010) Freefall: America, Free Markets and the Sinking of the World Economy
Vallianatos, E.G. (2014) Poison Spring: Secret History of Pollution and EPA
Vilar, Pierre (1976) A History of Gold and Money: 1450-1920
Yergin, Daniel (1992) Prize: Epic Quest for Money, Oil and Power
Would enjoy email correspondence with anyone interested in these subjects: mitchelldeacon9@gmail.com All the best
Related
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings
3 recommend · 3
One Up On Wall Street
20 recommend · 31
Value investing
5 recommend · 6
The Intelligent Investor
152 recommend · 292
Hedge fund market wizards
6 recommend · 7
Principles of corporate finance
6 recommend · 10
