Name: End Times
ISBN: 9780593490501

End Times

“Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book.” —Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the groundbreaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a big-picture explanation for America's civil strife and its possible endgames Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for more than a quarter century. End Times is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States. Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why. The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable.

What Hacker News says

gorgmahJun 2026

I like the word leveragism, in France people talk a lot about "financiarisation de l'immobilier", i.e. how real estate was a commodities in the 70s and is now a financial asset.

The video made me think of Peter Turchin's "End Times", a book that I recommend, for whatever it's worth, to you anonymous internet fellows. The book talks about many of the same arguments, and adds more. Its main thesis is that the author studied hundreds of major crises that led to war/poverty/revolutions etc., and the one thing all these events have in common is the excess of people that are willing to be part of the elite. He calls that the overproduction of elites: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_overproduction.

thread

photonthugMar 2025

The headlines about French or Dutch farmers dumping loads of manure at the front door of their own institutions have probably peaked. But these things are cyclic and fascism masquerading as populism is just part of the standard playbook. For related reading I suggest Turchin[1], who tries to strike a balance between US-centric commentary and looking at international trends. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/62926960-end-times

EDIT: Near the top of BBC-world today is a related article about villagers in Romania, highlighting once again that this is very much an ongoing thing, and that populism, fascism, and decline in quality of rural life are so entangled that it probably makes no sense to speak of them separately https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g7w3v5vw7o

thread

CapstanlqcApr 2024

Today I shall refrain from sharing content about AI (although the incomparable Donald Clark has often been an intriguing source when it comes to AI-powered learning and education). Instead, I'll share Donald Clark's remarkable review of Peter Turchin's landmark book, End Times. The book is essential reading, the review shakes you up.

thread

moose_manJan 2024

I think they suck just like crypto, these are all mechanisms rigging the economy in favor of the already wealthy. If we don't unrig it we will eventually get civil war. Popular immiseration eventually leads to upheaval.

Checkout the book - End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin

thread

moose_manJan 2024

It's not arrogance and not just that it is scammy or wasteful to the environment. Bitcoin is another mechanism the increases inequality.

I think Bitcoin is one of the many way that the economy is rigged against economically insecure retail investors. The more money that gets funneled from the middle class into Michael Saylor and crew's pocket the closer it brings us to civil war.

Checkout

End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin

https://www.amazon.com/End-Times-Counter-Elites-Political-Di...

thread

moose_manJan 2024

It's in the interests of the wealthy and powerful to do something about inequality. Revolutions don't usually end well for those in power.

Recommended reading:

End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration

https://www.amazon.com/End-Times-Counter-Elites-Political-Di...

"Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for more than a quarter century. End Times is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States.

Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why.

The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin’s models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit."

thread