The Perfect Storm
It was the storm of the century, boasting waves over one hundred feet high --- a tempest created by so rare a combination of factors that meteorologists deemed it "the perfect storm." When it struck in October 1991, there was a virtually no warning. "She's comin; on, boys, and she's comin' on strong." radioed Captain Billy Tyne of the Andrew Gail off the coast of Nova Scotia, and soon afterward the boat and its crew of six disappeared without a trace. In a narrative taut with the fury of the elements, Sebastian Junger takes us deep into the heart of the storm, depicting with vivid detail the courage, terror, and awe that surface in such a gale,. Junger illustrates a world of swordfishermen consumed by the dangerous but lucrative trade of offshore fishing ---"a young man's game, a single man's game" --- and gives us a glimpse of their lives in the tough fishing port of Gloucester, Massachusetts; he recreates the last moments of the Andrea Gail crew and recounts the daring high-seas rescues that made heroes of some and victims of others, and he weaves together the history of the fishing industry, the science of the storms, and the candid accounts of the people whos lives the storms touched. The Perfect Storm is a real-life thriller that leaves us with the taste of salt air on our tongues and a breathless sense of what it feels like to be caught, helpless, in the grip of a force of nature beyond our understanding or control.
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What Hacker News says
- If you are looking for an in depth (pop-sci) dive into the mass extinctions in earth's history definitely check out "The Ends of the World" by Peter Brannen. It covers the five mass extinctions with a good mix of scientific detail and entertaining writing. IIRC it discusses the likelier explanations for Silurian extinctions including disruptions to the carbon-silicate cycle (volcanism -> fresh silicate rocks -> weathering removes CO2 from the atmosphere as ultimately insoluble CaCO3 -> global ice age), anoxia/CO2 drawdown caused by increased phosphorous and other nutrient availability, and others.
"The Ends of the World" stands out as a top disaster book along with Simon Winchester's "Krakatoa" and Sebastian Junger's "The Perfect Storm".
- I know Junger more from his books -- The Perfect Storm, Fire, War. His style is gripping, with little details that bring the story to life, and the chapters often end with an emotional punch. He has said he is following the pattern of author John MacPhee, who could make any topic interesting. Junger also critiques his own work ruthlessly, cutting out anything that does not hold his attention when he is tired, fatigued, or tipsy. Only what is left is used, and it shines.
- It feels like Elon is now 'task saturated'[0]. There are more things that he needs to do, than there is time/brain-power to do them in. The last few times I've posted here about this feeling in a person in the news, the person has quickly folded and the 'worst' has happened. Not that my track record means much.
All the 'cool kids' are now leaving twitter, it seems. Further attempts to prevent this will just make them 'cooler' in the eyes of the public. Elon's public persona is now leaning towards an insulted school principal doling out badly considered punishments. The public smells blood and is going to pile on him. He should take a break from the internet until the New Year, but won't.
I saw two good ones on this that kinda fit. He's like Elmer Fudd with a site full of Bugs Bunnies. He's a narcissist that bought an insult factory.
I'm afraid that the public needs only to decide which site it's going to next. Like with Digg, Twitter is relegated to being not much more than a domain name that doesn't 404.
[0] A SnR term I learned from Junger's The Perfect Storm about when the USCG rescue helicopter pilot had to ditch. The recovered black box recorded that the pilot did everything on his checklist, except open his door. He was task saturated and just didn't have the time/brain-power.
- He's likely 'task saturated'.
https://nxlperformance.com/resource/wearing-too-many-hats-ca...
TLDR: "Sebastian Junger, in his book The Perfect Storm, gave the ultimate example of the hazard of task saturation. He wrote of a rescue helicopter pilot faced with a terrible storm. The pilot ran down his punch list to save his crew. The only thing he didn’t have time for? Unbuckling his seatbelt before ditching the helicopter. "
If you've not read the book, do that right now, it's amazing. The book's description of task saturation and how investigators determined every move of pilot David Ruvola's crash, nearly down to the second, well, it's riveting journalism. How Junger expertly confuses the reader just like Ruvola was confused is a masterclass in story telling.
SBF can do nothing but screw up now, there's just not enough time for his stressed out brain to compute what it needs to. I just hope he doesn't do something truly stupid and make matters much worse. It's just money in the end, it's not worth his life.
- Also The Perfect Storm in which the author discusses rogue waves and contemplates that one took down the Andrea Gail.
- Reading through the report via the NYT reminds me strongly of Junger's The Perfect Storm and it's description of the last minutes of the Jolly 110. Specifically: Task-Saturation.
For reference to set-up the situation[0]:
"On 30 Oct. 1991, United States Air Force Sikorsky HH-60G Pave Hawk, assigned to the 106th Rescue Wing, nicknamed the Jolly 110, New York Air National Guard, headed out into a hurricane that would become known as “The Perfect Storm.” Aboard were Major C. David Ruvola, pilot; Captain Graham Buschor, co-pilot; Staff Sergeant James R. Mioli, flight engineer; and pararescue jumpers Technical Sergeant John Spillane and Technical Sergeant Arden Rick Smith. Their mission was to attempt a rescue 250 miles (400 km) out to sea.
Due to the severity of the storm—a weather buoy located 264 miles (425 km) south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, reported a wave height of 100.7 ft (30.7 m) on 30 Oct., the highest ever recorded in that part of the Atlantic Ocean—the Pave Hawk crew was unable to make the rescue and had to return to their base.
Having already refueled from the Lockheed HC-130 Hercules tanker three times during the mission, and with low fuel, a fourth refueling was needed for the helicopter to make it back to the mainland. Because of the the extreme turbulence and lack of visibility, Jolly 110 could not make contact with the refueling drogue trailing behind the airplane.
Major Ruvola made more than 30 attempts, but finally both drogues had been damaged by the severe conditions. With just twenty minutes of fuel remaining, Jolly 110 would have to ditch in the middle of “The Perfect Storm.”"
Now, from The Perfect Storm:
"Ruvola finally breaks out of the clouds at 9:28, only two hundred feet above the ocean. He goes into a hover and immediately calls for the ditching checklist, which prepares the crew to abandon the aircraft. They have practiced this dozens of times in training, but things are happening so fast that the routines start to fall apart.(Aside: for a good look into the utter chaos of helicopter underwater egress, see this video from SmaterEveryday[1]) Jim Mioli has trouble seeing in the dim cabin lighting used with the night vision gear, so he can't locate the handle of the nine-man life raft. By the time he finds it, he doesn't have time to put on his Mustang survival suit. Ruvola calls three times for Mioli to read him the ditching checklist, but Mioli is too busy to answer him, so Ruvola has to go through it by memory. One of the most important things on the list is for the pilot to reach down and eject his door, but Ruvola is working too hard to remove his hands from the controls. In military terminology he has become 'task saturated' and the door stays on. " (pg 184, The Perfect Storm, S. Junger)
Now, those Lion Air pilots had better weather, much better, but the time in which they had to react was much less. Though I know nothing about how those cockpits are set-up and what the protocols are, there is a strange similarity to the Jolly 110 ditching and 'Task Saturation'.
