[0] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/307698.Financial_Calculu...
The whole point of the theory is there is a correspondence between a 'no-arbitrage argument' and calculating an expectation under the 'risk-free' measure. The mathematical operation of expectation E is only a tool. This link between no-arbitrage and martingale theory is called the 'Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing'.
There is a nice (basic) explanation of this idea in the book by Baxter and Rennie "Financial Calculus" where they compare the 'expected value' approach of a bookmaker and the 'no-arbitrage' approach.
For a more advanced explanation, you can have a look at the book by Delbaen and Schachermayer (2006).
- 'The Concepts and Practice of Mathematical Finance' - 'C++ Design Patterns and Derivatives Pricing'
Also of note is Baxter & Rennie:
- 'Financial Calculus: An Introduction to Derivative Pricing'
Once you've studied those and have a good grasp of Measure Theory, you'll want to tackle Shreve, Vol II.
And a brief plug of my (slightly out of date!) quant finance website, Quantstart.com.
if you really want intraday, think about news.google.com and http://rs2007.limsi.fr/index.php/TLP:Page_12 to automatically tweak the few k base parameters (SVM, associative memory etc).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/midas.shtml
Options, Futures and Other Derivatives, J. C. Hull, Prentice Hall Int’l
Financial Calculus, M. Baxter and A. Rennie, Cambridge University Press
but the ML part is almost irrelevant: it is not the lever in the leverage (think CDO trade).