
But the way risk is managed in the industry (multiplying likelihood and impact) is completely incoherent and voodoo. See the book "How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk" [1] for a good explanation of why it doesn't work and better ways to do it.
Which is a long way of saying, no, security doesn't use quantitative techniques mostly, but it would be possible if people understood how to measure and manage risk properly.
[1] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/97811198923...
I read "How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk" but the relevant concepts are from his original book:
- every measurement is an approximation
- you can determine a more accurate valuation (or probability) by thinking in terms of bets
The book isn't primarily about negotiating, but it is about estimating based on incomplete information, which applies to all negotiations. Avoiding a round number doesn't need to be arbitrary. By calibrating your estimation process you can come up with a more precise number, which can also boost your confidence.
The result is both having a more specific valuation in mind, and being more comfortable with the outcome regardless of whether the deal worked for fell apart.
1: https://www.howtomeasureanything.com/books-by-douglas-hubbar...