
> The version I described is the only one I've ever heard anyone else referring to.
In 2008 the IEEE magazine Spectrum did a series on the Singularity and one article [0] says "Like paradise, technological singularity comes in many versions, but most involve bionic brain boosting." Another article had this "Who's Who"[1] cheat-sheet of famous Singularity discussers for and against; one of the columns is "Kind of Singularity", and there's more than one kind. Kevin Kelly has "singularities are pervasive changes in the state of the world that are often recognizable only in retrospect. As a result, the singularity is always near". Bill Joy was a more general "computer science, biotech and nanotechnology event horizon". Marvin Minsky had mind uploading as well as machine intelligence.
Vernor Vinge named 'The Singularity' in 1983 and popularised the ida, and here are talk slides from him in 2005 after he had twenty years of thinking about it[2]:
Why call this transition the "Technological Singularity"?
By analogy with the use of "singularity" in Math
A place where some regularity property is lost
Not necessarily a place where anything becomes infinite
By analogy with the use of "singularity" in Physics
A place where the rules profoundly change
What comes beyond is intrinsically less knowable/predictable than before
The apocalyptic endpoint of radical optimism :-)
and Singularity futures
Possible paths to the Singularity
What if: AI (Artificial intelligence) research succeeds?
I.J. Good, "Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine"
Hannes Alfv�n, The End of Man?
What if: The internet itself attains unquestioned life and intelligence?
Gregory Stock, Metaman
Bruce Sterling, "Maneki Neko"
What if: Fine-grained distributed systems are aggressively successful?
Karl Schroeder, Ventus
Vernor Vinge, "Fast Times at Fairmont High"
What if: IA (Intelligence Amplification) occurs
As the radical endpoint of Human/computer interface research?
Poul Anderson, "Kings Who Die"
Vernor Vinge, "Bookworm, Run!"
As the outcome of bioscience research?
Vernor Vinge, "Fast Times at Fairmont High"
Vernor Vinge, "Win a Nobel Prize!"
A place where the rules profoundly change because of bioscience research, human/computer cyborging, or distributed systems emergent complexity, is compatible with Vingean Singularity ideas, or at least used to be before the current LLM/AGI hype cycle.The 'attractor at the end of history' is from Terence McKenna: "[he] saw the universe, in relation to novelty theory, as having a teleological attractor at the end of time, which increases interconnectedness and would eventually reach a singularity of infinite complexity. ... The universe is not being pushed from behind. The universe is being pulled from the future toward a goal ... our ever-accelerating speed through the phenomenal world of connectivity and novelty is based on the fact that we are now very, very close to the attractor."[3]
> "doesn't mean it's reasonable to say that must, or even could, have been the definition the person I was replying to was using."
Okay, but your "LLMs are not a path to AGI and tech bros are dumb" doesn't lead to anything interesting, it's just a mic-drop end of discussion.
[0] https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-consciousness-conundrum
[1] https://spectrum.ieee.org/who-is-who-in-the-singularity
[2] https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/ac2005/
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terence_McKenna#Novelty_theory...
To truly understand the transformative potential of something like a VR headset if technology allowed it to be unobtrusive and omnipresent, one must read Vinge. The idea of consensual reality as portrayed in, e.g., Fast Times at Fairmont High, is kind of mind-blowing.
> Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
Impressive timing on that prediction assuming GPT-4's release on March 14th counts as "superhuman intelligence".
I read Vinge's essay in college and it was a critical factor in affecting my career choices and transhumanist views. His sci-fi Fire Upon the Deep/Deepness in the Sky and Fast Times at Fairmont High/Rainbows End were also critical in affecting my career path into AR/VR. I highly recommend reading this essay and any of his other sci-fi. He work could be classified as "hard computer science fiction" because it is heavily influenced by his career in CS. When I was at Google X around 2011, I realized that almost all the stuff they were working on in secret at the time (AR glasses, Drone delivery, self-driving cars, balloon Internet with lasers, computers embedded in fabric, etc) were copied directly out of Fast Times at Fairmont High. Fast Times and Rainbows End aren't available online but I suggest Synthetic Serendipity which is set in the same universe and has concepts such as a gig economy (called "affiliate tasks"): https://spectrum.ieee.org/synthetic-serendipity
