Destined for War

What Hacker News says

1. jwood27Mar 2022
   The following have all had a significant effect on my worldview. You can find more information at [1].

   - The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich: A History of Nazi Germany

   - Thinking, Fast and Slow

   - Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind

   - Crime and Punishment

   - The Power Broker: Robert Moses and the Fall of New York

   - Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies

   - The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

   - Daring Greatly: How the Courage to Be Vulnerable Transforms the Way We Live, Love, Parent, and Lead

   - Franny and Zooey

   - Master of the Senate

   - Atlas Shrugged

   - Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed

   - Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

   - The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

   - The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics

   - The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't

   - Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans

   - Endurance: Shackleton's Incredible Voyage

   - Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World

   - Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones

   - Homo Deus: A History of Tomorrow

   - Ethics in the Real World: 86 Brief Essays on Things that Matter

   - A Swim in a Pond in the Rain: In Which Four Russians Give a Master Class on Writing, Reading, and Life

   - Humankind: A Hopeful History

   - The Bird Way: A New Look at How Birds Talk, Work, Play, Parent, and Think

   [1] https://jacobw.xyz/books/

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2. justinzollarsDec 2020
   You could read a number of books on this subject. The China Dream, On China, or Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap? The Economist is a good magazine, with almost weekly updates on this topic.

   We've been surpassed in PPP, Global Trade, Industrial Output etc. China's steel production is 1 billion tons a year, the US 80 million tons. They poured as much concrete in the last 10 years as we poured in the 20th century. In just a few years we will be surpassed by GDP and witin 25 years China's GDP will be double the United States.

   China's rise is not disputed.

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3. justinzollarsApr 2020
   Not everyone is a great messenger. I recommend Graham Allison Destined for War. Similar message but delivered differently.
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4. jvanderbotDec 2019
   Awkward future-history fan fiction. There's better ways to get this warning and details about how it might unfold.

   I recommend On China, World Order, and Destined for War.

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5. justinzollarsNov 2019
   I don't really appreciate that. I would argue I'm pretty well informed on China. I've traveled to China, I've worked with the Chinese for over a decade across various roles, my grandfather helped industrialize China, and I've read many great books on China. Personally I retweeted Hillary Clinton's support of Hong Kong protestors while I was in Beijing, so I put myself at personal risk in doing this.

   But lets address your comment directly: "The level of cognitive dissonance would be off the charts." Is it?

   One book I recommend is Graham Allison "Destined for War".

   https://www.amazon.com/Destined-War-America-Escape-Thucydide...

   One question that specifically stands out from his book - is that the West believes in Universal Human Rights. China obviously does not. This is a point of conflict and we have some very difficult questions to address in the future. Suppose China attacks Taiwan. What if China has a second Tiananmen in Hong Kong? Do we sanction China? What if China responds with more violence? What do we do? Do we go to war? This is an obvious point of conflict. And these are questions that we will have to work out in the future.

   From the perspective of an investor, these are also difficult decisions. We can see this in how the NBA has responded, and how South Park has responded - each differently. Is it really wise to Balkanize the world if our goal is to encourage China to adopt Human Rights? How would a second cold war help?

   Obviously I don't have the answers. But I can recognize the conflict from the perspective of a VC whose goal is to make money.

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6. justinzollarsSep 2019
   First I'm sorry Hillary Clinton lost, I was a 2008 HRC delegate, so it certainly hurts. But China is definitely a greater strategic rival than Russia. Russia's GDP is very small compared with China; in fact China surpassed the US in 2014 by PPP and if their people become just half as productive as you and I - they will become twice our GDP.

   I recommend reading more on this subject. one interesting book is "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?" by Graham Allison. (Recommended by Joe Biden, and Lloyd Blankfein)

   https://www.amazon.com/Destined-War-America-Escape-Thucydide...

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