Deadliest enemy
Infectious disease has the terrifying power to disrupt everyday life on a global scale, overwhelming public and private resources and bringing trade and transportation to a halt. In today's world, it's easier than ever to move people, animals, and materials around the planet, but the same advances that make modern infrastructure so efficient have made epidemics and even pandemics nearly inevitable. So what can -- and must -- we do in order to protect ourselves? Drawing on the latest medical science, case studies, and policy research, Deadliest enemy explores the resources and programs we need to develop if we are to keep ourselves safe from infectious disease.
Stats for nerds
2recommend
4mentions
4people
2017–2020years
50% recommend50% neutral
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What Hacker News says
- This was very helpful to me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info. https://amzn.to/2IAzeLe http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/
- Tangent: Currently reading Deadliest Enemy [1] which I recommend. I'm firmly in favor of eradicating mosquitoes if we can find a safe means. Which I hope we do.
[1] https://books.google.com/books/about/Deadliest_Enemy.html?id...
- I'm not convinced anyone has good evidence for this particular claim at this time, but labeling it "batshit crazy" is premature. Michael Osterholm, a respected epidemiologist, explains in his book "Deadliest Enemy" his belief ("no doubt in his mind") that the 1977 Russian flu was released from a bioweapons lab. If it happened before there isn't any reason it couldn't happen now.
EDIT: I misspoke slightly by referring to "bioweapons," so I decided to post the full quote here:
> It turned out that the Soviets were conducting vaccine studies using live, attenuated H1N1 influenza viruses in the very area where the new H1N1 was first detected. During our research, we uncovered a letter from the Soviets to the US government requesting that we share with them the 1976 Fort Dix strain of H1N1 for their vaccine studies. I have little doubt that the appearance of the 1977 H1N1 virus and its rapid global transmission in just several months was the result of a release of the virus in the course of the Soviet vaccine studies. We don’t know exactly what they were doing with the virus. What we do know is that it got out, either accidentally or on purpose, causing a local outbreak in lab workers that subsequently spread around the world. Either way, the powerful lesson here is that if an influenza virus accidentally escapes or is intentionally released, expect that it will spread around the world in short order. This is the proverbial single match being able to light a global forest fire. The possibility for a DURC research study using a potentially dangerous influenza virus should scare the hell out of everyone.
- So I encourage people to go watch the Joe Rogan podcast on this [1]. A few snippets:
- He describes this as more like a "winter" than a "blizzard" in that this is going to go on for months;
- No one really knows what the mortality rate is but it's become clear there are certain risk factors eg the fatality rate among people over 70 in China is about 3x for men than women but men are much more likely to smoke than women in China in this age group.
- Keeping schools closed is a mixed bag. For one, kids below 9 or so don't seem to get sick or die. In China only 2% of cases are under age 19. There are other diseases like this (eg Hepatitis-A). If you keep kids home, some people will lose their jobs or simply be unable to work as they take care of those children. Some of those people will be health care professionals. The lack of those will likely kill people;
- It's unclear yet what other risk factors (other than age and smoking) there are. Obesity in the developed world is a big cause for concern as this unfolds. A stat quoted is that 45% of people in the US aged 45 and older are obese or severely obese;
- It's largely a question of when not if you'll get this;
- It's a myth that we'll have a vaccine before ~18 months. You can't rush this. It's like trying to rush a pregnancy.
- Italy is a window to how most places will be in ~3 weeks;
- We, as a society, have a short attention span. We could've developed a vaccine for coronaviruses after previous outbreaks (SARS/MERS) but there seemed to be no appetite for that when they faded;
- Disruptions to the supply chain are likely to be the biggest problem. We don't stockpile anything and we're dependent on China for a lot of medical equipment (eg respirators) and a bunch of essential medicines, some of which people will die if they don't receive.
The guest here (Michael Osterholm) is an expert on infectious diseases and the author of Deadliest Enemies [2].
I can't speak to the reaction of different governments. It's no surprise there's variance. This probably comes down to just 1 or 2 personalities.
[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
[2]: https://www.amazon.com/Deadliest-Enemy-Against-Killer-Germs-...
