The logic of political survival

The authors of this ambitious book address a fundamental political question: why are leaders who produce peace and prosperity turned out of office while those who preside over corruption, war, and misery endure? Considering this political puzzle, they also answer the related economic question of why some countries experience successful economic development and others do not. The authors construct a provocative theory on the selection of leaders and present specific formal models from which their central claims can be deduced. They show how political leaders allocate resources and how institutions for selecting leaders create incentives for leaders to pursue good and bad public policy. They also extend the model to explain the consequences of war on political survival. Throughout the book, they provide illustrations from history, ranging from ancient Sparta to Vichy France, and test the model against statistics gathered from cross-national data. The authors explain the political intuition underlying their theory in nontechnical language, reserving formal proofs for chapter appendixes. They conclude by presenting policy prescriptions based on what has been demonstrated theoretically and empirically.

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whattheheckheckNov 2025

Yes governance power can take many forms but when it changes, it's no longer democracy.

If anything a better analysis comes from the book Logic of Political Survival. The selectorate and the winning coalition are much smaller than previous generations because of the massive accumulation and consolidation of wealth. So they dont have to do jack shit for the majority of people because theyre irrelevant in gaining or holding power. The majority of Americans hold and wield absolutely no political power in placing anyone in power. And then are surprised when they get wrecked. Or maybe theyre not surprised because they simple dont know how much theyre country is getting looted

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anigbrowlFeb 2025

There's lots of them, but I respectfully submit that doing something about it in the present - whatever you determine that to be, given your skills and inclinations - is a far higher priority than the educational byproduct for future generations.

Using your Weimar example, I would not argue that Germany or humanity is/are better off for having gone through the cataclysm of WW2. In terms of building context, you might find it helpful to read this dry but very detailed examination of the nazi administrative state, and how it delivered economic resources to its political clients through a combination of reorganization, financial engineering, and striaght-up theft:

https://archive.org/details/hitlersbeneficia00alyg

On a more abstract level, try 'The logic of political survival' by Smith & Bueno de Mesquita. both books will give you a useful framework within which to assess the contextual significance of ongoing news events.

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smarm52Jun 2024

I like to read on scientific topics. Some of my favorites include:

Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the twenty-first century. Harvard University Press.

De Mesquita, B. B., Smith, A., Siverson, R. M., & Morrow, J. D. (2005). The logic of political survival. MIT press.

Axelrod, R., & Hamilton, W. D. (1981). The evolution of cooperation. science, 211(4489), 1390-1396.

Tetlock, P. E. (2017). Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?-New edition. In Expert Political Judgment. Princeton University Press.

Diamond, J., & Renfrew, C. (1997). Guns, germs, and steel: The fates of human societies. Nature, 386(6623), 339-339.

McGillivray, F., & Smith, A. (2008). Punishing the prince: a theory of interstate relations, political institutions, and leader change. Princeton University Press.

Kuhn, T. S. (1997). The structure of scientific revolutions (Vol. 962). Chicago: University of Chicago press.

Lietaer, B., & Dunne, J. (2013). Rethinking money: How new currencies turn scarcity into prosperity. Berrett-Koehler Publishers.

Fulcher, J. (2015). Capitalism: A very short introduction (Vol. 108). Oxford University Press, USA.

Wiseman, R. (2016). Queen bees and wannabes: Helping your daughter survive cliques, gossip, boys, and the new realities of girl world. Harmony.

Any recommendations are appreciated. =)

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hiAndrewQuinnMay 2024

Love de Mesquita's The Logic of Political Survival and selectorate theory in general as well. What a meaty concept, with a lot of counterintuitive explanations.

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anigbrowlDec 2023

But voters aren't victims of talking points.

I'm not so sure about that, there's a good argument that many folk get exhausted trying to resolve all the political calculus (while still living their lives and dealing with everyday problems) and just give up. Bryan Caplan called this 'rational irrationality' in his book 'The Myth of the Rational Voter' and I found his argument quite persuasive. Also look into Alistair Smith/Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's The Logic of Political Survival and their notion of 'selectorate theory'.

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wyagerDec 2023

> This distinction is meaningless.

Only if you subscribe to the most naive grade-school model of democracy. A government isn't actually the will of the people made manifest; it's an organization made up of people, processes, and constraints. Just like a corporation isn't actually the will of the shareholders made manifest.

> The motivations of the "structured entity" is defined by the nebulous collective will of the population.

Once again, this is an absurdly naive view of how governments function. There is a voting mechanism in place which usually does a sort of OK job of keeping the government's behavior in line with the population's preferences, but this breaks down all the time and even in equilibrium doesn't work very well.

I suggest reading Bueno de Mesquita's _The Logic of Political Survival_ if you're interested in developing a realistic model for how government behavior emerges.

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