Everything is obvious

What Hacker News says

1. yesenadamJan 2019
   There's a great book about this, Everything is Obvious (Once You Know The Answer) about how many scientific studies come up with obvious-seeming findings, but if they'd found the opposite, that would have seemed obvious to us too..
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2. denzil_correaMay 2018
   There's a book which explains this phenomena : "Everything is Obvious ... Once you know the answer"

   http://everythingisobvious.com/the-book/

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3. alexleavittFeb 2018
   "Everything is Obvious," by MSR researcher Duncan Watts.

   Imagine every time when people infer seemingly-obvious extrapolations from data. This book addresses that phenomenon to make you more self-conscious about the limitations of data and the constant need for more research.

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4. abandonlibertyMar 2017
   Gladwell's writing is seductive, providing surprising insight which appears to make complex phenomena understandable and manageable.

   Unfortunately, I fact checked him. He's an entertainment writer at best, an intentional distributor of misinformation packaged as research at worst.

   Examples:

   Blink featured John Gottman's research into relationships. He could predict relationship outcomes with 91% accuracy. Unfortunately he never split out a test dataset and the model was overfit; real world accuracy is no better than existing techniques. This was known at publish time.

   Tipping Point drove companies to seek out Mavens and Connectors, only to find that they don't really exist. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tipping_Point#Scientific

   For an actual evidence-based review of many Malcolm concepts, I recommend "Everything Is Obvious: Once You Know the Answer".

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5. meeritaJun 2015
   I really loved to read "Everything is Obvious" (once you know the answer) book. http://everythingisobvious.com/the-book/
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6. mjklinMar 2015
   Have you read the books Everything Is Obvious (Once You Know the Answer) by Duncan Watts, or Social Sciences as Sorcery by Stanislav Andreski?

   Your piece reminded me very much of both.

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