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    Tamino

    tamino.wordpress.com · Personal blog · on HN since 2009

    Tamino is a statistician who analyzes climate data, such as temperature records, sea level rise, and weather station data.

    Visit blogRSSHN submissions
    Climate & EnergyData & VisualizationScience
    What HN says

    HN commenters link his posts as data-based answers on sea level, El Niño and record temperatures, and the supposed global warming pause.

    Stats for nerds
    22HN people shared it
    20linked in comments
    608story points
    Oct 2023last shared
    2009people per year2023

    Top posts on HN

    1. 1
      USA Temperature: can I sucker you?
      4 people · 283 points · first shared 2018 · 229 comments on HN
    2. 2
      Using grape harvest dates to estimate summer temperature over 650 years
      1 person · 258 points · first shared 2022 · 195 comments on HN
    3. 3
      Chaotic systems and randomness
      1 person · 31 points · first shared 2011 · 7 comments on HN
    4. 4
      Embarrassing Questions On Global Warming
      1 person · 17 points · first shared 2009 · 13 comments on HN
    5. 5
      Analysis of GHCN weather station data shows no artificial warming effect
      1 person · 3 points · first shared 2010 · Discussion on HN
    6. 6
      [Global Warming] Skeptics: Real or Fake?
      1 person · 3 points · first shared 2011 · 1 comments on HN
    7. 7
      Analysis of 1981 Paper “Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”
      2 people · 2 points · first shared 2016 · Discussion on HN
    8. 8
      July was the global average hottest month so far
      1 person · 2 points · first shared 2015 · Discussion on HN
    9. 9
      Global Warming 2016: Arctic Spin
      1 person · 2 points · first shared 2017 · Discussion on HN
    10. 10
      Flippant Accusations
      1 person · 2 points · first shared 2015 · Discussion on HN

    What HN people wrote when they linked it

    • throwaway5752May 2016

      Are you really comfortable citing them?

      Here's a discussion of the author of that post's prior work: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/02/13/making-up-stuff/

      edit: fascinating how easy it is to be downvoted simply by pointing out the lack of credibility of AGW skeptics. On one hand, you have the overwhelming majority (97-74%) of professional scientist saying (respectively) that global warming is occuring or that it's man-made and provable with existing science. On the other hand, you have people with dubious credentials, poor ethics, and/or extraordinary conflicts of interest as paid fellow at Cato, Heartland, AEI, et al.

      All of this is easily verified by simple use of a search engine. Since... just about nobody here is a professional climate researcher, I think all we can go on is the credibility of sources of information. It is not ad hominem to bring someone's motivation and prior record into consideration.

    • yourapostasyAug 2016

      > ...until the heat death of everything.

      If further climate outcomes continue to track Hansen's thus-far correct 35-year-old predictions [1], then we've already passed some kind of tipping point and "the heat death of everything" could potentially mean Venusian-style anthropogenic cooking of Earth in some worst-case scenarios, and mass population dislocations and mega-scale environmental disruptions in milder scenarios.

      If it turns out that life as we know it is exceedingly rare (and I must admit that the more we find out about exoplanets, the more disconcerted I am while realizing that the hazy possible solution space to the Fermi Paradox is becoming rather uncomfortable as the resolution grows with each passing decade), then that would be truly a tragic outcome.

      [1] https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/08/16/crystal-serenity/

    • anon1385Sep 2013

      > is the antarctic icecap not rapidly getting larger?

      To the best of our knowledge the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is gaining mass[1] due to increased precipitation and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass[2] due to acceleration of glaciers. I believe there is also an increase in Antarctic sea ice extent [3]. As far as I know these increases are not enough to offset the reduction in mass in the Arctic but I don't have a comparison to hand. Wait a few days and the IPCC report will probably have a decent summary.

      [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet#Ice_mass_changes
      [2] http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/12/the-heat-is-on-in-west-antarctica/
      [3] http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/03/16/antarctic-sea-ice-gain/

    • chrisbNov 2009

      Just to comment on the often repeated claim of the unavailability of the data - try visiting:

      http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php - contains all the models used in the IPCC AR4.

      http://tamino.wordpress.com/climate-data-links/ - contains a huge amount of climate data.

      http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/ammann/millennium/CODES_MBH.html - An independend re-evaluation of a climate reconstruction.

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/mann2008/mann2008.html - Full data for a late 2008 reconstruction.

      Data is available - maybe part of the problem is the complexity and quantity of the data.

    • sasheetsAug 2017

      Here's a compilation of links to get you started:
      https://tamino.wordpress.com/climate-data-links/

      Climate science is a big subject and you should start by understanding the basics of the subject. Spencer Weart's history of climate science is a good place to start:
      https://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm

      Also, I see many people with strong statistics/engineering backgrounds analyzing climate data and coming to wrong conclusions because they never bothered to learn the physics. Don't be those people.

    • ljcnJun 2019

      Yes, here are a few articles from Tamino's blog. Note the first one is #1 in a 7-part series

      https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/12/28/sea-level-rise-u-s-east-coast-i/

      https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/07/24/boston-sea-level/

      https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/11/04/moon-over-miami-boston/

      The last one (and related posts) is worth a look even though it isn't what you asked for because it discusses how an apparently small increase in sea level can lead to a surprising increase in flood frequency.

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