Timothy Snyder is a Yale historian who writes about the Russia-Ukraine war, authoritarianism, and threats to democracy.
Commenters praise him highly, citing his Ukraine course, and argue over his claims about Russia, Ukraine and domestic US government power.
I've never been a fan of news organizations making endorsements. However, the idea that such an endorsement is being suppressed because of an owner's fear of reprisal against their other businesses by a candidate should they win the election is very very very bad. Intimidation of a free media is how fascist regimes begin and thrive. As Timothy Snyder wrote: Do Not Obey in Advance.
In general politics is to be avoided on HN, but I will sacrifice every point I have to for my fellow Americans (international viewers, apologies for the American centric writing).
1)Russia is at war with the United States of America. 2)The goal of this war is to destabilize America. 3)The battle-ground is here at home. 4)The weapons in this war include pervasive laundering of Russian money into a) bend the minds of Americans through pervasive propaganda, b)direct corruption of U.S. citizens with money in return for favors or for promoting propaganda (e.g. influencers), c) corruption of politicians with promises of power, d) our divisions and our platforms for communication.
Too few Americans accept or appreciate the veracity of points 1 thru 4, and this makes us weak. We have a free and open internet, and while this is great, it means that U.S. citizens are accessible, viable targets to any foreign-influence campaign, which can be all the more effective given the amount of data accumulated on each individual, and the ease at which these attacks can be individualized at scale. The United States…
> Russian direct energy supplies to the EU have been cut, raising energy costs
So the EU should have been more careful not to be too dependent on Russia? Maybe Germany should have avoided shutting down their nuclear reactors.
The idea that US should cut of our allies in Europe is stupid and insane but at the same time Europe made a lot of mistakes that it should learn from
> What pockets planned and backed up the Maidan rise that removed the Kremlin's puppet from power? Who aimed and intended such country to join NATO along years before this event?
No "one" planned it. It was a spontaneous grassroots movement that blew up when the authoritarian president tried to violently crack down on it.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/ukraines-maidan-revolution
> The consolation prize Yanukovych dangled before a liberal intelligentsia that hated him was the distant prospect of European integration. For a young generation in particular, “Europe” was the object of the greatest desire. In November 2013 Ukraine was expected to sign a long-anticipated association agreement with the European Union. At the eleventh hour, on 21 November 2013, Yanukovych refused.
> The disappointment was especially crushing for students, who felt as if their future had vanished; Europe would be closed to them. That evening a thirty-two-year-old Ukrainian journalist from Kabul named Mustafa Nayyem wrote in Russian on his Facebook page: “Come on, let’s get serious. Who is ready to go out to the Maidan by…
I think I clearly stated that the US and NATO has had influence, sufficient to tilt the war in either direction, but I also think it's unrealistic to believe that influence can be leveraged to end the war let alone set the terms for peace.
The world in the 21st century is not one in which individual sovereign countries are beholden to the dictates of great powers and where therefore a simplified framework for understanding global politics that only considers great powers is useful.
Ukraine fought off the initial Russian attack without US and NATO, do you think they would stop fighting now if support were withdrawn? How exactly do you think the US and NATO could force Ukraine and Russia to the table? Do you think that eastern European countries would withdraw support from Ukraine even absent the US and NATO when Russian incursions on neighbouring territory represent very real threats to them? The entire premise that the US can end this war feels like a hopelessly naive relic of a different era.
My own point of view is that the only way this will end peacefully is with the full withdraw of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. The question of how this can be achieved without Russia becoming destabilized and fracturing, which I don't feel is desirable, is certainly a concern, although I fear that that may be the only thing that leads to their withdraw. (See Timothy Snyder's piece on the subject: How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end? [1])
1.…
There is then perhaps not enough discussion about certain aspects of the invasion and public justification by Putin and rhetoric in Russian media.
It is clear that the main reason behind the invasion is to take control over Ukrainian land and natural resources (especially oil and natural gas that was discovered in 2012). This is clearly an imperialist ambition, but by itself does not make this invasion a genocide.
What makes it genocide is the plan how to solve the Ukrainian question, that is, what to do with the people who oppose Russian invasion in Ukraine and do not accept that Ukraine will become Russian territory.
So far 5 parliaments (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Canada) have declared Russian actions in Ukraine as genocide.
If you think that these parliaments are too much politically motivated, then here is one independent legal analysis
https://newlinesinstitute.org/russia/an-independent-legal-analysis-of-the-russian-federations-breaches-of-the-genocide-convention-in-ukraine-and-the-duty-to-prevent/
Historian and holocaust researcher Timothy Snyder has written about the topic on multiple occasions.
The following was written after Russian state news agency RIA Novosti published an article about "Ukrainian question" just after revelation of the Bucha massacre:
https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook
This writing helps to understand the ideology behind these actions and…
Oh I'm not saying Israel's decision to attack Iran forced the US to join in on strategic or self-defense grounds. I'm saying it forced them because the US does whatever Israel tells them. That is why both US lead negotiators with Iran are Jewish [1], why US congressmen have Israeli flags outside their offices [2], why Nancy Pelosi said the #1 priority in the Capitol is Israel [3], why Netanyahu gets 3 straight minutes of applause when he starts his speech in Congress (and lots of applause interruptions later) [4].
Because when 50% of donations to the Democratic party, and 25% of donations to the Republican party, are from Jewish sources [5], it can't be any other way.
[1] In practice, critical negotiations, with Iran and elsewhere, have been put in the hands of two people, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with close personal relationships with the president and obvious economic stakes in the relevant conflicts. - https://snyder.substack.com/p/on-superpower-suicide
[2] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2qjLaSyAWj8
[3] if this Capitol crumbled to the ground, the one thing that would remain would be our commitment to our aid, I don’t even call it our aid, our cooperation with Israel. - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1LmnQRnw8I
[4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6XZKE7a_F4
[5] https://www.jpost.com/us-elections/us-jews-contribute-half-of-all-donations-to-the-democratic-party-468774
Syllabus of Ukraine class - "The Making of Modern Ukraine," Fall 2022
- https://snyder.substack.com/p/syllabus-of-my-ukraine-lecture-class
"...Topics there include the Kyiv state, early modern Lithuania, and Poland during the age of discovery. Ukraine also provides an intense example of the confrontation between modern national politics and extreme colonial alternatives from the far right and far left...
...Modern topics therefore include Russian and Austrian empires; Jewish and Polish urban society; Romanticism and modern nationalism; the Bolshevik Revolution and its Ukrainian counterparts; Soviet modernization and terror; Nazi occupation and the Holocaust; and ethnic cleansing...
...Finally, contemporary Ukrainian history poses in striking form the question of the functionality and durability of the post-imperial state. The last few topics are thus: the late Soviet Union; problems of post-Soviet rule, the Orange Revolution and Maidan and the war of 2014; and the present war..."