A blog on New York City transit, covering the Second Avenue Subway, MTA construction costs, and subway service and fares.
HN commenters recommend it for NYC transit coverage, especially the Second Avenue Subway history and its deep dive on MTA construction costs.
In 1968, Garrett Hardin wrote a paper called "The Tragedy of the Commons" [1]. Many people seem to think this term dates further back to Adam Smith or earlier it does not. Well, this became hugely influential in noeliberalism and was used as the justification for governments to sell off their assets in the 1980s and 1990s in particular, all based on this (flawed) idea that private industry was more efficient. This was the era of public-private "partnerships". What that really means was privatizing the profits and socializing the losses while guaranteeing profits.
Utilities were generally public prior to this. Now we have private equity buying up utilities because the profits are guaranteed [2]. While electricity prices are regulated, capex on infrastructure isn't so they can simply boost profits by "investing" in the network ie creating extra capacity for data centers to be sold electricity at sub-market rates.
Lots of expierments were done and empirical data analyzed on the tragedy of the commons and it never matched the theory. Ultimately, this resulted in Elinor Ostrom winning the 2009 Nobel Price for Economics for disproving it with empirical data. Yet people still quote it.
Look at the list of metro systems sorted by length [4]. They're almost all Chinese. The 4th largest is in Chengdu, which only opened in 2010. In 16 years it's now the 4th largest in the world.
Pretty much any argument you can use about how China is different will have a contradiction by…
Unlike the Europeans, who don't have to deal with unions:
> In Europe, too, subways cost less. Madrid's recently-opened Metrosur line is 41 km long, with 28 stations, yet was completed in four years at around $58m per km. Recent expansions in Paris and Berlin cost about $250 million per km.
* https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2011/11/1-billion-doesnt-buy-much-transit-infrastructure-anymore/456/
> In Japan and continental Europe, Levy found, tunnels usually cost between $200 million and $450 million per mile; the most expensive, the North–South Line in Amsterdam, still cost only $660 million per mile, more than twice its original budget. Spain, Italy and South Korea were especially economical, building tunnels for less than $250 million per mile. (Since 2011, US inflation has increased these numbers by about 12 percent.)
* https://nypost.com/2018/08/25/why-nyc-is-priciest-city-in-the-world-for-infrastructure-projects/
Even LA and Chicago are cheaper AFAICT, they're probably unionized as well.
NYC just seems to be a really weird place where multiple factors are stacking up on each other:
* https://ny.curbed.com/2017/12/29/16829746/mta-nyc-subway-construction-costs-investigation
The NYT did a "deep dive" a little while ago:
* http://secondavenuesagas.com/2018/01/01/inside-times-deep-dive-factors-behind-mtas-massive-cost-problems/
Why do the floors of the subway have to be much so worse than the floors of Grand Central Station, or for that matter, the ground in Bryant Park? All are open to the public and incredibly heavily trafficked.
The only difference is funding. NYC subways remain woefully underfunded. There's no big secret of what it would take to fully fund a clean subway system. The answer is $100 M a year [1]. Now, should the capital infrastructure cost less? Of course. But there is no reason for the economic arterial system of the whole region to remain so filthy in the meantime.
The only potential revenue source that could credibly provide the MTA with the money it needs to bring all stations to a "State of Good Repair" [2], install valuable upgrades like train locator screens and sliding platform doors, and keep the stations clean is a congestion tax like Move NY [3].
A congestion tax would also have the benefit of making Manhattan a much more walkable and ridable city and would even make rush hour taxis move faster. But until there's political will to implement a congestion tax, I don't expect any meaningful improvements in the subways.
[1] http://secondavenuesagas.com/2008/09/30/cleaning-the-system-would-cost-100-million/
[2] http://secondavenuesagas.com/2015/09/10/cbc-mtas-state-of-good-repair-remains-forever-elusive/
[3] http://iheartmoveny.org/
There are several factors:
* Labor costs and construction material costs have grown faster than inflation.
* There are more amenities in subways (such as handicapped access in stations) now than 100 years ago, and new construction accounts for them from the beginning.
* The underground infrastructure has become more crowded, which increases the number of pipes and the like that need to be relocated or avoided during construction.
* Planning and permitting requirements have increased, so you need to spend money showing, e.g., that you aren't harming any migratory fowl resting areas, or ensuring that you can expeditiously evacuate the station in case of an emergency.
* The agencies in charge have been doing worse and worse jobs at cost-control and project management.
The proposed price tag of the second phase of the 2nd Avenue subway is absolutely ludicrous--and so far, the MTA's justification [1] for the insane cost premiums is "fire codes." Seriously. For 10× over, say, Paris Metro construction costs. The public really needs to take MTA and the New York state government to task for allowing that sort of bullshit to stand.
[1] http://secondavenuesagas.com/2019/09/23/mta-officials-cite-fire-code-in-defending-6-billion-cost-for-phase-2-of-the-second-ave-subway/
Not to be a wet blanket, but let's not forget how far behind schedule this line is - it was originally supposed to be opened just a few years after World War II(!): http://secondavenuesagas.com/second-ave-subway-history/
The most ironic part is that the bulk of the line is already complete (or mostly there) - they just don't have enough to stretch below 42nd street, IIRC, which is the tipping point for when they can open it as a useable line.
Also, last I heard, it was to be a single-track line (like the L). So after all those years, we'll still be stuck in the case of any breakdowns or delays - picture the L at rush hour, except worse, because of the passenger volume. And no chance of any express train.
That is, if it ever even opens. A good rule of thumb for the MTA's estimates seems to be 'Time.now() + 5.years'.
All that said, I love NYC's transit system - it couldn't be the city is without it. I just wish we had more than one single line on the east side!
Good luck holding a vacuum under the ocean. I read stuff like this and I think, "Gee, I don't think these people have actually built anything." because if they had they would realize that if it costs $1M a foot too build subways [1] in cities with moderately skilled labor, its going to cost $10 - 25M/ft to build something like this. That's half a quadrillion dollars (448 trillion dollars). What sort or rate of return do you think you would need to make that feasible?
I'd love someone to actually do a credible cost analysis of an evacuated tunnel train. Unfortunately I don't think Oster did.
[1] http://secondavenuesagas.com/2010/01/14/the-costs-of-second-ave-construction/