Philipp Dubach writes about AI, markets, and tech trends, including analyses of Hacker News sentiment and prediction markets.
HN commenters link it for his argument that on-device AI will drive phone upgrades; the given comments offer little direct opinion on his writing.
26 Jun 2025 18:15:45 UTC
Situational Awareness: A One-Year Retrospective
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EGGruXRxGQx6RQt8x/situational-awareness-a-one-year-retrospective
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44389862
[ok]
30 Aug 2025 07:36:18 UTC
Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead (2024)
https://situational-awareness.ai/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45072686
[ok]
12 Oct 2025 15:02:14 UTC
Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead
https://situational-awareness.ai/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45558688
[ok]
29 Dec 2025 12:33:40 UTC
Situational Awarness The Decade Ahead (2024) [pdf]
https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46420030
[ok]
03 Mar 2026 13:19:26 UTC
Situational Awareness: the decade ahead (2024)
https://situational-awareness.ai/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47231897
[ok]
05 Mar 2026 15:19:17 UTC
Situational Awareness (2024)
https://situational-awareness.ai/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47262572
[ok]
10 May 2026 02:47:06 UTC
Situational Awareness Kindle eBook ePub
https://blog.cahillanelabs.com/kindle/epub/llm/2026/05/10/situational-awareness-ebook
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48080509
[ok]
18 May 2026 19:05:28 UTC
Situational Awareness LP Q1 13F Filings Are Public
https://kiankyars.github.io/investing/2026/05/18/situational-awareness-lp.html
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48184085
[ok]
22 May 2026…
This is madness. Some stories actually have good guys. I don't know Adam directly, but we have plenty of second degree connections. I've benefited immensely from his work, have never heard anyone say a single negative thing about him, and I genuinely believe he's done more to push the web forward with Tailwind than the larger players have done (certainly more than Facebook did with React and Google has done with Angular/AMP/etc).
Reflexively assuming that unanimous positive sentiment towards someone is itself an indication of a problem is exactly the reason people are writing posts as recently as (double checks) _yesterday_ titled "65% of Hacker News Posts Have Negative Sentiment, and They Outperform" https://philippdubach.com/standalone/hn-sentiment/
This is amazing, I just spent some time scrolling through these, most of the evolution is about inference cost not capability. GQA, MoE routing, sliding window attention, all trading theoretical capacity for practical efficiency.
Tbh might be the last generation of architectures designed entirely by humans. I dug into that (1) and might add another paragraph based on this if I find the time. The Big LLM Architecture Comparison (2) by Sebastian Raschka already inspired my ograph image for the blog -thanks again!
(1) https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-last-architecture-designed-by-hand/
(2) https://magazine.sebastianraschka.com/p/the-big-llm-architecture-comparison
Local inference is the future imho.
https://philippdubach.com/posts/on-device-ai-models-will-be-the-new-reason-to-upgrade-your-phone/
Stick to your full url: https://philippdubach.com/2025/11/23/is-ai-really-eating-the-world-1/2/