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    Colin Fraser

    medium.com/@colin.fraser · Personal blog · on HN since 2020

    Colin Fraser, a data scientist, writes on Medium about what large language models do, their limits, and misleading data stories.

    Visit blogHN submissions
    AI & Machine LearningData & Visualization
    What HN says

    Commenters call his piece on LLMs and chatbots a great, engaging read, and cite his post debunking the Target pregnancy-prediction story.

    Stats for nerds
    20HN people shared it
    9linked in comments
    26story points
    Dec 2025last shared
    2020people per year2025

    Top posts on HN

    1. 1
      Generative AI is a hammer and no one knows what is and isn't a nail
      4 people · 14 points · first shared 2024 · 2 comments on HN
    2. 2
      Who are we talking to when we talk to these bots? (2023)
      4 people · 6 points · first shared 2024 · 1 comments on HN
    3. 3
      Expensive Bullshit at Scale
      2 people · 4 points · first shared 2023 · 1 comments on HN
    4. 4
      Hallucinations, Errors, and Dreams
      1 person · 2 points · first shared 2024 · Discussion on HN
    5. 5
      Target didnt figure out a teen girl was pregnant before her father did a6be13b973a5
      10 people · first shared 2020

    What HN people wrote when they linked it

    • zer00eyzMar 2023

      Target and the model that found the pregnant girl (bad counter argument here: https://medium.com/@colin.fraser/target-didnt-figure-out-a-teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did-a6be13b973a5

      There are three options:

      1. Prevent/Stop it: This ship sailed long ago. Not to be grim about it but pandoras box got opened.

      2. Fight it: Tool up, change your print, your behavior, your place. Build focused VM's that you use per topic. Simply do a WHOLE lot less. In the grand scheme, its a lot of work for low return. Note: there are exceptions.

      3. Increase Noise: The whole point of most data collection is to sell more to you. Because most people are sheep, a fairly simple model can be surprisingly accurate (over targeting is an issue). Don't be a sheep, diversify, make more noise in the system, search out side your comfort zone and change it up often.

    • mcguireJan 2024

      Who are we talking to when we talk to these bots?

      https://medium.com/@colin.fraser/who-are-we-talking-to-when-we-talk-to-these-bots-9a7e673f8525

      "It is an intentional choice to present this technology via this anthropomorphic chat interface, this person costume. If there were an artificial general intelligence in a cage, it feels natural that we might interact with it through something like a chat interface. It’s easy to flip that around, to think that there’s a technology that you interact with through a chat interface that it must be an artificial general intelligence. But as you can clearly see from interacting with the LLM directly via the Playground interface, the chat is just a layer of smoke and mirrors to strengthen the illusion of a conversational partner."

    • skybrianDec 2025

      It’s a meme that will never die, but there’s no proof it ever happened:

      > This story doesn’t even show that Target tried to figure out whether the girl was pregnant. It just shows that she received a flyer that contained some maternity items and her weird dad freaked out and wanted to talk to the manager. There’s no way to know whether the flyer arrived as a result of some complex targeting algorithm that correctly deduced that the girl was pregnant because she bought a bunch of lotion, or whether they just happened to be having a sale on diapers that week and sent a flyer about it to all their customers.

      https://medium.com/@colin.fraser/target-didnt-figure-out-a-teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did-a6be13b973a5

    • gruezMar 2025

      >That's quite an assumption to make. The very famous example of data tracking and creepy correlations is the story about the supermarket sending baby ads to a household based on nothing more than their purchasing habits.

      While a fun anecdote, it really shouldn't be taken seriously as something that actually happened.

      https://medium.com/@colin.fraser/target-didnt-figure-out-a-teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did-a6be13b973a5

    • dontchooseanickDec 2020

      The original article : https://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/magazine/shopping-habits.html

      A counter-claim : https://medium.com/@colin.fraser/target-didnt-figure-out-a-teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did-a6be13b973a5

      Sorry to have distorted the truth. The AD still revealed to a father that his daughter was pregnant. AFAIC this is relevant to the OP question about why ads should sometime refrain to "target"

    • bevr1337Jun 2025

      Here's a skeptical write-up about the mailers I was referencing. I like this view because it acknowledges human fallacies. For example, that an untargeted ad could feel targeted or that we may exaggerate the amount of ads that feel targeted.

      https://medium.com/@colin.fraser/target-didnt-figure-out-a-teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did-a6be13b973a5

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