Eli Dourado, an economist and technology writer, covers cargo airships, supersonic flight, geothermal energy, geoengineering, and AI.
HN commenters cite his cargo airship post as thoughtful and aware of the problems, and point to the blog for essays on building things.
While you provide some solid arguments, I feel that you are overlooking certain key elements. I myself feel that the likelihood of Argentina switching to BTC after its upcoming financial collapse is quite low. However I feel that certain niche sectors of the economy could well jump to using BTC.
The points that you overlook are:
[1] The USD is currently being deflated like never before and could potentially collapse without warning. Thus making it increasingly unattractive to hold over long periods.
[2] Argentina's online economy has recently suffered a huge blow with taxes for online purchases outside of the country. BTC is already becoming the international 'money of the internet'.
[3] Most importantly, Bitcoin volatility has been decreasing over time as the price & adoption increases. This is something that shouldn't be overlooked as it has huge implications for the pricing of goods and services in BTC.
[4] Finally, there are many ways to do fast transactions in BTC. Have you ever tried sending BTC from one android wallet to another? It comes through instantly. Granted that larger BTC transfers would still require more confirmations though. Off-blockchain transaction services could also kickoff soon.
[1] http://mises.ca/posts/blog/murdoch-tweets-about-money-printing-and-inflation-reality-wont-be-far-behind/
[2] http://www.npr.org/2014/01/23/265195791/argentina-imposes-heavy-tax-on-international-online-shopping
[3] http://elidourado.com/blog/bitcoin-volatility/
[4]…
Thereputic Plasma Exchange (ie. exchanging blood plasma with saline and albumin) seems a very promising treatment for aging. [1] [2]
"These findings are exciting not only because they represent a scientific advance in understanding aging, but also because they herald the first real anti-aging product that could come to market. Therapeutic plasma exchange is FDA-approved (not for aging, but for a bunch of other conditions). I imagine there remain prohibitions on advertising that it can add years to your life, but it is safe, and a doctor can prescribe it off label. It’s also cheap. An automated plasmapheresis machine—which lets you do treatment after treatment—can be bought online for under $3,000. That is less than the cost of a single transfusion of young blood sold by the startup Ambrosia. How long until someone opens a clinic offering plasma dilution? I bet someone tries it in 2021. If it works, people will get over the weirdness, and it could be commonplace by 2030." [3]
[1] https://www.aging-us.com/article/103418/text#fulltext
[2] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11357-020-00297-8
[3] https://elidourado.com/blog/notes-on-technology-2020s/
The reef, as currently constituted, is a lost cause, assuming neither political nor technological solutions to global warming emerge. Genetically engineered coral or algae is one possibility[1][2]. Another is carbon sequestration by massive production of olivine sand weathering in the ocean[3]. The cost of reversing anthropogenic climate change since the 1750s are about $16 trillion, which if done over 10 years, would cost 1.7% of global GDP.
[1]https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/coral-reef-genetically-engineered-climate-change-great-barrier-global-warming-a8318756.html
[2]https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2017.01220/full
[3]https://elidourado.com/blog/dawn-of-geoengineering/
> We should absolutely work to reduce, reuse, and recycle,
No, we shouldn't.
We should primarily work on scaling up our energy production. I was long in favour of nuclear, although apparently there's some exciting development in deep geothermal as well. (inspired by https://elidourado.com/blog/geothermal/ )
We shouldn't even try recycling the plastic, but simply burry it. Oil from the ground, plastic back into the ground.
With enough energy and a viable waste management process in place, we don't need to bother with reducing, reusing or recycling, but can simply enjoy our lives to the fullest.
"Stop Saying Bitcoin Transactions Aren't Reversible"
http://elidourado.com/blog/bitcoin-arbitration/
Other commenters here have mentioned n-of-m multisignature transactions. This article describes how multisig works, and how it can be used to implement better arbitration than what's been possible with traditional payment systems.
Unfortunately we're in the early days of Bitcoin here: support for multisig isn't common, and neither is the awareness of just how important it is for large transactions. We'll get there though.
It is suspected (and I think reasonably so) that Bitcoin volatility will decrease over time[1].
Regardless, I think with the financial tools we have developed in the past few hundred years we are very well equipped to deal with volatile assets.
Perhaps it is you who doesn't want to think longer about Bitcoin than the two seconds it takes to realize that loaning Bitcoins might be a difficult problem.
1] http://elidourado.com/blog/bitcoin-volatility/