Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX exchange, writes long essays on crypto, monetary policy, interest rates, and global markets.
HN commenters cite his essays for arguments on Trump and interest rates, stablecoins, and quarterly futures basis trading, and some note others disagree.
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/archive/ - not just one individual but a few. Entrepreneurship, finance, tech.
"Every investor is making bets on the future. It’s only called speculation when you disagree with someone else’s bet.
In hindsight there was as much speculation in the 1990s that Kodak and Sears would keep their market share as there was that eToys and Pets.com would gain market share. Both were bets on the future. Both were wrong. It happens.
Of course there’s a speculation spectrum. But let’s not pretend that others speculate while you only deal with certainties."
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/ - Arthur Hayes blog. Crypto trading mostly.
"I am an arbitrage trader at heart. In May 2013 brimming with my experience as a delta one trader, I entered the crypto capital markets. The first trade I ever put on was buying Bitcoin from Mt. Gox, depositing them on ICBIT, then selling BTC/USD June 2013 inverse futures contracts at a premium. My first trade captured a premium of 200% per annum (PA). When the futures expired, and my PNL matched my spreadsheet calculations exactly, I thought to myself, holy shit, “Bitcoin is LIT!”"
If they haven’t yet, they will eventually. Once banks realize that utilizing BTFP is kosher, they’ll run it all the way to its cap (which encompasses a little over $4T of distressed assets [0]) and reinvest the cash wherever they can. The mortgage rate will become pegged to the one-year rate and the housing market will resume its climb. Banks will still take a massive hit but they’ll bleed out slowly instead of crashing violently causing widespread panic in the process.
[0] https://cryptohayes.medium.com/kaiseki-b15230bdd09e
Arthur Hayes, the founder of Bitmex, argues that Trump tries to manufacture recession to get lower interest rates (for his real estate empire)
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/kiss-of-death-916ae30fedc5
you've been able to sell the quarterly basis for 2-4x that much for years. See here: https://cryptohayes.medium.com/all-aboard-4d50435190d6
Others disagree: https://cryptohayes.medium.com/stablecoin-triptych-7a062e745925